One of the most important remaining states, and the most important one on Tuesday March 10, 2020, for the Democratic Primary takes the candidates to Michigan where 125 pledged delegates are on the line. Joe Biden is now one-third of the way to the Democratic nomination as the former Vice President has received 664 of the required 1,991 delegates to win.
The field got much clearer after Super Tuesday as Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the race. Bloomberg endorsed Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren is still deciding on who, if anyone, to endorse. Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the race on Monday, prior to Super Tuesday, and went on to endorse Joe Biden.
Odds to win Michigan Primary – odds via William Hill
- Joe Biden -600
- Bernie Sanders +375
Joe Biden had a big Super Tuesday and now finds himself as the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. According to the three polling aggregates – 270 to Win, FiveThirtyEight, and RealClear Politics – Joe Biden holds a slight 32.0% to 29.1% advantage over Bernie Sanders. Tulsi Gabbard is also technically still in the race and is polling at 1.6%.
Back in 2016 Bernie Sanders pulled off a major upset over Hillary Clinton in Michigan. Sanders, who never led a poll in the state leading up to the Primary, came away with a slight 67-63 win. You really get an idea of how close this race was when looking at the popular vote, which saw Bernie Sanders win by just an 18,000 margin, 598,943-581,775.
According to a polling aggregation last updated on March 4, 2020, it is Joe Biden that holds a slight 30.2% to 27.1% advantage. FiveThirtyEight has Joe Biden leading 37.8% to 30.1% and 270 to Win has Bernie Sanders with a 24.0% to 22.5% advantage.
I don’t see anything like 2016 happening this year. Joe Biden is going to run away with Michigan and will almost wrap up the Democratic nomination this Tuesday. If Bernie can keep this within a 30 delegate range his campaign will probably see it as a win, but I do not see that happening.