BMW Open Best Bets – May 5th

The BMW Open has one finalist, but the weather was not compliant and the other semifinal on the day was postponed until Sunday. Christian Garin advances to his third clay court final of the season after a dominating 6-2 6-4 win over Marco Cecchinato. Garin was in control from go and the young Chilean’s breakout season continues. Garin now sits at 18-5 on the season and has a chance a chance to win his second career, and second of the 2019, ATP title. Stunningly enough Christian Garin has won four of his last seven clay court tournaments and will be looking to make it five of eight.

Here is my best bet for the last semifinal in Munich. Take Christian Garin to win the tournamnet no matter who wins the semifinal.

Roberto Bautista-Agut (-153) vs Matteo Berrettini (+133)

Matteo Berrettini upped his winning streak to eight games after a three set comeback win over three time Munich champ Philipp Kohlschreiber. Berrettini might be the hottest player on tour, this clay season, as his record currently stands at 8-1 with one title winning campaign in Budapest. Berrettini has two career ATP titles and is just two wins away from title #3. Roberto Bautista-Agut, has one career ATP clay court title, back at 2014 Stuttgart, and has been a relatively consistent player on this surface over the years. Bautista-Agut fought back from a set down to knock off the in-form Guido Pella to advance to his second semifinal of the season. I like Matteo Berrettini to continue his good run of form.

The H2H is tied 1-1, but Berrettini leads 1-0 on clay.

YTD Tennis Results: 115-76

BMW Open Results: 8-1

 

BMW Open Best Bets – May 4th

The BMW Open has its final four men after one of the more entertaining quarterfinal days in recent memory. All four matches went into three sets and, oddly enough, three of the four winners all lost the first set. Marton Fucsovics was serving for the match, but Marco Cecchinato broke him, then saved a match point on his serve, and it was the Italian who prevailed in three tough sets. Cecchinato will face Christian Garin who knocked off top seed, and back-to-back champ, Alex Zverev in three sets. Garin was serving for the match, but Zverev was able to break him and advance to a third set. In the third set neither guy could hold their serve, but Garin was able to prevail in the end. The second semifinal will consist of Matteo Berrettini vs Roberto Bautista-Agut. Berrettini lost the first set, but then produced two solid sets of tennis to come back and win in the three sets. Roberto Bautista-Agut dropped the first set, but fought back to win the final two sets and advance to the semis.

The semifinals feature the #2 and #3 seeds, as well as two of the hottest clay court players on tour this season. This is a stacked semifinal field in Munich.

Here are my two best bests for the semifinal action in Munich.

Roberto Bautista-Agut (-153) vs Matteo Berrettini (+133)

Matteo Berrettini upped his winning streak to eight games after a three set comeback win over three time Munich champ Philipp Kohlschreiber. Berrettini might be the hottest player on tour, this clay season, as his record currently stands at 8-1 with one title winning campaign in Budapest. Berrettini has two career ATP titles and is just two wins away from title #3. Roberto Bautista-Agut, has one career ATP clay court title, back at 2014 Stuttgart, and has been a relatively consistent player on this surface over the years. Bautista-Agut fought back from a set down to knock off the in-form Guido Pella to advance to his second semifinal of the season. I like Matteo Berrettini to continue his good run of form.

The H2H is tied 1-1, but Berrettini leads 1-0 on clay.

Marco Cecchinato (-120) vs Christian Garin (+100)

Marco Cecchinato got crushed in the first set of his semifinal match, losing 6-1 to Marton Fucsovics, but was able to fight back and win two tough sets to advance to the semifinals. Cecchinato is preparing for his third semifinal of the season and the Italian has gone 1-1 in those other two matches. The Italian lost to Tomas Berdych in the Doha semifinals, but was able to knock off Diego Schwartzman in the Buenos Aires final. Cecchinato has won three career clay court ATP titles and is just two wins away from victory #4. Christian Garin had one heck of a semifinal match against Alex Zverev on Friday. The Chilean won the first set, and was serving for the match in the second set, before Zverev was able to fight back and take the second set. The third set was all over the place, but Garin was able to fight and win 7-5. Garin is now 17-5 on clay this season and will compete in his third semifinal of the season on clay. Garin is 2-0 in his prior semifinals and won the title in Houston a few weeks back.

This is going to be an incredible match and I like Christian Garin to get the win.

Marco Cecchinato leads the H2H 2-0 with both meetings being on clay.

YTD Tennis Results: 112-73

BMW Open Results: 8-1

BMW Open Best Bets – May 3rd

The BMW Open has its first final eight men after a very straightforward day on Thursday. There was a big favorite in each Round of 16 match on Thursday and all four men came away with victories. Roberto Bautista-Agut, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Matteo Berrettini all advanced in straight sets and without having to sweat out too much. Guido Pella was the only guy who needed three sets, but the two sets he did win were done in comfortable fashion.

The quarterfinals is a pretty decent field considering the lack of big names in this year’s BMW Open.  Five of the top eight seeds remain, including three of the top four. The quarterfinal matchups are Alex Zverev vs Christian Garin, Marco Cecchinato vs Marton Fucsovics, Guido Pella vs Roberto Bautista-Agut and Matteo Berrettini vs Philipp Kohlschreiber.

Here are my two best bests for Friday in Munich.

Philipp Kohlschreiber (-164) vs Matteo Berrettini (+129)

Last year’s runner up, Philipp Kohlschreiber, is just two wins away from defending his points from 2018. The veteran German had won back-to-back matches just twice all season prior to this week, but he has not been bothered in his two matches so far in Munich. Kohlschreiber is the 2007, 2011 and 2016 champion of this tournamnet, so he is no stranger of the moment. Matteo Berrettini improves his winning streak to seven matches after a straightforward 7-5 6-3 win over Denis Kudla. Berrettini had a breakout 2018 and he seems to have only gotten better in 2019. I like Matteo Berrettini to keep his winning streak alive.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

Marco Cecchinato (-189) vs Marton Fucsovics (+150)

The 2019 Buenos Aires champion, Marco Cecchinato, cruises into his third quarterfinal of the season after a convincing straight set win over Martin Klizan. Cecchinato has 42 wins, and three titles, on clay since the start of 2018 and the Italian will look to add another win to that tally on Friday. Marton Fucsovics has won back-to-back matches for the first time since late February and is now through to his third quarterfinal of the 2019 season. This is a rematch of their second round matchup in the 2018 version of this tournamnet, a match won by Fucsovics, and I like Marco Cecchinato to get the win this time.

Marton Fucsovics leads the H2H 2-0 and leads 1-0 on clay.

YTD Tennis Results: 109-70

BMW Open Results: 6-1

 

BMW Open Best Bets – May 2nd

The BMW Open has its first four quarterfinalists after a pretty lackluster day of tennis on Wednesday. The only upset of the day was a slight one when Christian Garin, who went off at +110, knocked out Diego Schwartzman in straight sets. Marco Cecchinato knocked off Martin Klizan in straight sets, Alex Zverev knocked off Juan Londero in straight sets and Matron Fucsovics came back to knock off Thiago Monteiro in three sets.

The final four quarterfinalists will be set after Thursday’s action with the matchups being Guido Pella vs Taro Daniel, Rudolf Molleker vs Roberto Bautista-Agut, Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Karen Khachanov and Denis Kudla vs Matteo Berrettini.

Here are my two best bests for Thursday in Munich.

Matteo Berrettini (-357) vs Denis Kudla (+250)

Matteo Berrettini backed up his title winning run in Budapest with a convincing straight set win over Denis Istomin on Tuesday. Berrettini now sits at 6-1 this season on clay and he looks like he is going to be a problem on this surface for many years to come. The 23-year-old has now won a clay court ATP title each of the last two years and will look to add to his total number of wins on Thursday. Berrettini will face off against Denis Kudla who was a surprising winner on Tuesday. Kudla entered his first round match, against Kyle Edmund, on a six match losing streak, but convincingly knocked out Britain’s #1 in straight sets. Kudla has never been good on clay and Berrettini cruises into the quarterfinal.

Denis Kudla leads the H2H 3-1, but this will be the first matchup on clay.

Philipp Kohlschreiber (-164) vs Karen Khachanov (+120)

Philipp Kohlschreiber took advantage of an out of form Andreas Seppi to easily advance to the second round of the BMW Open. A former six time ATP champ, on clay, Kohlschreiber struggled in 2018 and looks to be on that same path this season. Currently sitting at 12-9 overall this season, and 3-2 on clay, Kohlschreiber will be looking to gain some form as we inch closer to the French Open. Karen Khachanov had a breakout 2018, going 47-24 with three titles, but he has not been able to back that up so far in 2019. The young Russian is currently 7-9 on the season, 0-2 on clay and enters his match against Kohlschreiber on a four match losing streak. Form may say otherwise, but I like Karen Khachanov to get the win.

Philipp Kohlschreiber leads the H2H 2-1, but the series is tied 1-1 on clay.

YTD Tennis Results: 106-67

BMW Open Results: 5-1

BMW Open Best Bets – May 1st

The BMW Open has dwindled down to 16 remaining players after Tuesday’s action.  There were 10 matches that took place on Tuesday and, for the most part, the favorites were able to take care of business. However, there were two pretty big upsets on the day. Denis Kudla, who went off at +550, ended his five match losing streak and knocked out the #5 seed Kyle Edmund in straight sets. The other upset of the day was Thiago Monteiro, who went off at +225, knocking out Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets.  Matteo Berrettini, Guido Pella and Christian Garin remain in good form as the trio all won in straight sets. Diego Schwartzman, Juan Londero, Martin Klizan, Philipp Kolschrieber and Rudolf Molleker all advanced to the Round of 16 as well.

Schwartzman vs Garin, Zverev vs Londero, Cecchinato vs Klizan and Monteiro vs Fucsovics get the Round of 16 started on Wednesday.

Here are my two best bests for Wednesday in Munich.

Diego Schwartzman (-152) vs Christian Garin (+110)

Diego Schwartzman fought off a tough first round opponent, in Benoit Paire, to advance to the Round of 16 in Munich. Schwartzman lost early in Barcelona, to eventual champion Dominic Thiem, so he will be hopeful to gain some momentum this week. Schwartzman, a clay court specialist, has gone 9-5 on clay this season, including a run to the final at Buenos Aires, but has lost in the first or second round of every other clay court tournamnet he’s participated in. Christian Garin, the 2019 Houston champ, had his seven match winning streak end in the Round of 16 in Barcelona last week. However, the young Chilean got back to his winning ways with an easy first round win, over Yannick Maden, on Tuesday. Garin is currently 15-5 on clay this season and has made at least the Round of 16 in each of his last three clay court tournaments. This is going to be a fun match and Diego Schwartzman gets the win.

The H2H is tied 1-1 with both matchups taking place on clay.

Marco Cecchinato (-189) vs Martin Klizan (+137)

Marco Cecchinato, the 2019 Buenos Aires champion, is enjoying a mixed season on clay in 2019. Yes, he does have that one title, but he also has one first round exit and a Round of 16 exit at Monaco a few weeks back. The Italian enjoyed a breakout season on clay, in 2018, winning his first two ATP titles and advancing to the semifinals of the French Open. Cecchinato enters Munich as the #3 seed and will face off against veteran Martin Klizan. The Slovak entered Munich losing four out of his last five, but he was able to knock out Ernests Gulbis in straight sets on Tuesday. Klizan has had some success on clay in his career, but Cecchinato gets the win on Wednesday.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

YTD Tennis Results: 102-65

BMW Open Results: 4-0

BMW Open Best Bets – April 30th

The BMW Open got open underway with just two first round matches being completed. Taro Daniel knocked out Ugo Humbert in straight sets and Marton Fucsovics fought back in the third set to knock out Lorenzo Sonego in a third set tiebreaker. This tournament really gets rolling on Tuesday with 10 matches taking place. Diego Schwartzman vs Benoit Paire is the headlining match, but the likes of Matteo Berrettini, Christian Garin, Kyle Edmund and Guido Pella are all in action.

Here are my three best bests for Tuesday in Munich.

Matteo Berrettini (-278) vs Denis Istomin (+200)

Matteo Berrettini, fresh off his title winning campaign at the Hungarian Open, enters the BMW Open high on confidence. The Italian used a three set comeback in the final, against Filip Krajinovic, to lift his second career ATP title. Now up to a career high ranking of #37, the 23-year-old will look to continue to rise up the rankings during the clay swing. Denis Istomin was on a three match losing streak before successfully qualifying for the BMW Open. Istomin has been competing on tour since 2006, but has just one winning season on clay. Berrettini ups his winning streak to six.

Matteo Berrettini leads the H2H 1-0, but this will be their first encounter on clay.

Christian Garin (-227) vs Yannick Maden (+162)

Christian Garin backed up his title winning run in Houston with a Round if 16 appearance in Barcelona last week. The Chilean is currently 14-5 this season on clay and he will look to continue his good form this week in Germany. Garin takes on veteran Yannick Madden who successfully qualified for Munich this week. Madden, who has won four career ITF clay court tournaments, will look to get just his second main draw win of the 2019 season on Tuesday. Christian Garin gets the win.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

Martin Klizan (-227) vs Ernests Gulbis (+162)

Martin Klizan is a four time clay court ATP champion, and the 2014 champion here, but the veteran Slovak is not in great form on the surface at the moment. Klizan bowed out of Monte Carlo in the second round and suffered a first round defeat last week in Barcelona. Klizan went 38-12 on clay last season, so the ability is there, but it remains to be see if Klizan has it in him this season. Ernests Gulbis is currently on a seven match losing streak, but looked up to the task in his latest loss against Laslo Djere in Budapest. Gulbis has not been a good clay player since 2014, when he won his only clay court ATP title, and I expect his losing streak to increase to eight after Monday’s matchup. Martin Klizan gets the win.

Martin Klizan leads the H2H 2-1, but the matchup is tied 1-1 on clay.

YTD Tennis Results: 96-62

BMW Open Results: 1-0

BMW Open Best Bets – April 29th

The Road to Roland Garros heads to Munich, Germany as the BMW Open gets underway Monday with four main draw matches. Alexander Zverev enters the tournament as the #1 seed and is looking to win his third consecutive title in Munich. Joining Zverev as the top seeds, and receiving first round byes, are Karen Khachanov, Marco Cecchinato and Roberto Bautista Agut. Seven of the 28 men in this tournament are Germans and there is plenty of talent in the draw, so this should be an exciting week of tennis.

Here are my two best bests for the opening round action in Munich.

Marton Fucsovics (-120) vs Lorenzo Sonego (-120)

Marton Fucsovics is coming off back-to-back second round defeats on clay and will look to get over this hurdle in Germany. Faced with a brutal first round opponent Fucsovics will have to get closer to his 2017 clay form if he wants to avoid a first round exit. Fucsovics has one career ATP title and it was on the clay in Geneva, so the Hungarian does have the ability on this surface to go the distance. Fucsovics’ first round opponent is the fast rising, and inform, Lorenzo Sonego. The young Italian made the quarterfinals in Monaco, a few weeks back, and will look to stay hot this week in Munich. This is a high level first round matchup, and really either guy can win this, but I like Fucsovics to get the win.

Marton Fucsovics leads the H2H 1-0 and that only matchup was on clay.

Martin Klizan (-227) vs Ernests Gulbis (+162)

Martin Klizan is a four time clay court ATP champion, and the 2014 champion here, but the veteran Slovak is not in great form on the surface at the moment. Klizan bowed out of Monte Carlo in the second round and suffered a first round defeat last week in Barcelona. Klizan went 38-12 on clay last season, so the ability is there, but it remains to be see if Klizan has it in him this season. Ernests Gulbis is currently on a seven match losing streak, but looked up to the task in his latest loss against Laslo Djere in Budapest. Gulbis has not been a good clay player since 2014, when he won his only clay court ATP title, and I expect his losing streak to increase to eight after Monday’s matchup. Martin Klizan gets the win.

Martin Klizan leads the H2H 2-1, but the matchup is tied 1-1 on clay.

YTD Tennis Results: 94-61

BMW Open Results:

 

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