The San Antonio Spurs head to Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder for the first time this season, so I’ve prepared the best betting pick for this Western Conference showdown along with the latest odds update on BetMGM Sportsbook.
While the Thunder are rolling on a three-game win streak, the Spurs have just snapped their three-game winning spin and will miss DeMar DeRozan on Tuesday night which is a huge blow for Gregg Popovich’s team.
San Antonio had an awful shooting night in Minneapolis
The San Antonio Spurs (5-5; 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 96-88 defeat at the Minnesota Timberwolves last Sunday. They were listed as 4.5-point road favorites, but the Spurs struggled mightily without DeMar DeRozan who hit the sidelines due to personal reasons.
San Antonio made only 38.3% of its field goals and 26.7% of its 3-pointers in Minneapolis. Lonnie Walker IV led the way with 25 points and four assists, while LaMarcus Aldridge had 20 points and nine rebounds, but it was quite a disappointing performance in general, as the Spurs scored just 39 second-half points while surrendering 30 in the fourth quarter.
The Spurs are 19th in the league in points scored per 100 possessions (108.9) and 22nd in field goal percentage (44.5%). They take just 30.3 attempts from deep (26th) while making 39.2% of their 3-pointers (tied-3rd). The Spurs’ defense is still a problem, allowing 110.9 points per 100 possessions (20th) on 47.8% shooting from the field (25th).
OKC finished a five-game road trip in style
The Oklahoma City Thunder (5-4; 6-3 ATS) wrapped up a five-game road trip with an impressive 129-116 victory at the Brooklyn Nets as 7.5-point underdogs. They went 4-1 SU and ATS, suffering a tough 118-90 defeat at Miami on January 4, but the Thunder played very well over their previous three outings.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 31 points against Brooklyn, and he’s leading the way for OKC this season with 21.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game. Six more players average points in double figures including veterans George Hill and Al Horford.
The Thunder tally 103.8 points per 100 possessions (27th) while surrendering 107.8 in a return (8th). They are doing a great job on the defensive end, but OKC still have to improve a lot on the other side of the ball if they want to mount a serious playoff challenge.
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”nba/thunder” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Trends:
San Antonio:
- 0-7 ATS in the last seven games against Northwest Division
- 6-14 ATS in the last 20 road games against OKC
Oklahoma City:
- 10-4 ATS in the last 14 games overall
- 4-1 ATS in the last five games against Western Conference
The Winner Prediction
I expect to see a dramatic clash. Both teams have had some ups and downs through the first three weeks, but the Thunder have impressed recently, so I’m backing them to cover against the shorthanded Spurs.
DeMar DeRozan is a key guy for San Antonio, and his absence affects the Spurs’ offense a lot. This is a nice chance for the Thunder to extend their win streak with another strong defensive performance, so I hope they’ll take full advantage.
Pick: Take Oklahoma City +1.5 at -110
The Total:
Honestly, both San Antonio and OKC lack offensive talent, but they like to play at a steady pace, averaging 101.0 possessions per 48 minutes each (tied-12th in the league). Therefore, the line at 216.5 points is a tricky one, considering their offensive woes and OKC’s stout defense.
I’m backing the under, and once more, DeMar DeRozan’s absence is a key factor. He’s driving the Spurs’ offense, so I expect the visitors to struggle against the Thunder who love to play aggressive defense.
Pick: Go under 216.5 points at -110