The San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies will kick off Western Conference playoff action with the play-in game at 7:30 p.m. ET. This is the #9 vs. #10 game, so the winner will advance to play the loser of Lakers vs. Warriors later this week and the loser will go home.
That means that everything is on the line for both teams in this one and we should have no questions about the effort levels and motivations of these two teams. Memphis is -4 with a total of 222.5 from the fine folks at BetOnline Sportsbook.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs lost four in a row coming down the stretch and tied with the Charlotte Hornets for the worst record of the teams in the playoffs. The Hornets were thumped by Indiana by 27 points on Tuesday night. Is a similar fate in store for the Spurs?
In fairness to San Antonio, their last four games were against the Suns twice, the Knicks, and the Nets, all clear-cut playoff teams that finished in the top four of their respective conferences. The Spurs aren’t playing a team on that level in this situation. However, the Spurs are the only Western Conference playoff team with a negative point differential on the season and have dropped eight of 10. They were just lucky that nobody else was close to chasing them down.
San Antonio has few redeeming qualities on either end of the floor. The Spurs are in the bottom third of the league at defending the three and outside the top 10 at defending the two. They rank 24th in 2P% and 24th in 3P% on offense. That seems like a good recipe for being a team with a sub-.500 record and that is precisely what the Spurs are.
Maybe Gregg Popovich can be the x-factor in this matchup, as the legendary Hall of Fame coach can be a great equalizer, though he’s had far better teams than this in the past. Only the Hornets had a lower NetRtg than the Spurs among the playoff teams.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies won five in a row to secure their spot as the #9 seed prior to losing the regular season finale in a standalone road game at Golden State. It wasn’t a great situational spot for Memphis and that played out in the 12-point loss. Memphis was making a push to be the #8 seed and have a double elimination opportunity, but it was not to be.
Across the board, Memphis is a fairly average team. They went 38-34 with the fourth-youngest roster in the NBA per Basketball-Reference, so that is a huge step in the right direction for a young team to make the playoffs. The other youngest teams were Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Detroit, all of whom had terrible records and missed the playoffs badly.
Like the Spurs, the Grizzlies don’t stand out offensively, ranking 20th in 2P% and 20th in 3P%. Memphis was better defensively, coming in 18th against the three and 11th against the two. Given that the Spurs were 30th in 3P Rate this season, the fact that Memphis is much better at defending twos than threes could end up being the deciding factor in this matchup.
The pace of this game will be interesting. With a young, up-and-coming roster, Memphis ranked eighth in Pace. The Spurs were 15th, which is quicker than what we’ve seen from a lot of San Antonio teams recently. Both offenses have been inefficient, so a game with a few more possessions could have a higher degree of variance to it.
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Free Pick
Memphis has some young guys that may have to shake off some nerves early in this one, so San Antonio could get out in front a little bit early on and you could get a cheaper price to back Memphis. When all is said and done, though, the Grizzlies are the better team, have certainly played as the better team, and have the better defensive squad, which should matter a lot in a game like this.
NBA Free Pick: Memphis Grizzlies