The Denver Nuggets will be at home in Pepsi Center when they square off against the San Antonio Spurs to open the First Round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 211 points with Denver opening as a 5.5-point favorite. Action begins at 10:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 13, 2019, and it can be seen on ESPN.
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets ATS Preview
These two teams have met four times already this year, each winning twice. In the most recent matchup, Jokic scored a game-high 20 points and the Nuggets defeated the Spurs 113-85, covering as 5-point favorites. He also recorded 11 rebounds and nine assists. The two teams combined for 198 points, which was 16.5 points below the projected point total of 214.5 points. Denver had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.609 vs. 0.414). San Antonio, meanwhile, did an excellent job of making free throws (18-25; 72.0 percent).
Of San Antonio’s 82 games, 43 have finished over the projected point total, while 47 of Denver’s 82 games have finished under the projected point total. The Nuggets have the better straight up (SU) record (54-28 vs. 48-34), but both teams are right around the .500 mark against the spread (ATS).
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams battle. Denver currently ranks 25th in possessions per game (100.2) and San Antonio is 26th (100.2).
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Under
The Nuggets rank second in assists per game (27.4) while the Spurs rank 17th in assists allowed per game (24.7).
Denver ranks 19th in points off turnovers per game (15.7) while San Antonio ranks last (14.1).
Denver ranks 16th in three pointers attempted per game (31.4) while San Antonio ranks last (25.3).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (42.5) while San Antonio ranks seventh (43.9).
On the road, San Antonio is 19-20-2 ATS with 25 overs and 16 unders.
At home, Denver is 25-16 ATS with 22 unders and 19 overs.
Denver is 25-2 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while San Antonio is 16-3.
When scoring over 100 points, the Spurs are 47-22 and the Nuggets are 50-20.
The Nuggets rank 15th in fast break points per game (12.6) while the Spurs rank 28th (10.4).
Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.5) while San Antonio ranks 26th (11.6).
The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (52.2) while the Spurs rank 26th (43.3).
The Spurs rank third in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while the Nuggets rank 13th (5.0).
Denver ranks 12th in steals per game (7.7) while San Antonio ranks 29th (6.1).
Denver is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.
Across its past five outings, San Antonio is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.8, up from 4.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Spurs have scored an average of 109.6 points per game (2.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.0 points per game (6.0 below their season average).