The Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento Kings will battle in the NBA Cup on Friday night in Sacramento. The Thunder are coming off their first loss of the 2025-26 season and they will try to bounce back against a Kings team that is trying to turn the corner in a loaded Western Conference. Before these teams tip things off at Golden 1 Center, you can find my Thunder vs Kings prediction below.
Our Thunder vs Kings Pick
- Pick: Kings +10.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings
- Date & Time: Friday, November 7, 2025 at 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
The Thunder have opened the season with strong form at 8‑1. But they did suffer their first loss of the season in their last outing on the road against the Portland Trail Blazers. The Thunder are missing several players, including Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins. Lu Dort is also questionable to take part in this game and his status could greatly impact how the Thunder perform on the defensive end of the floor.
The Kings’ 3‑5 record reflects a team still trying to find its identity. They have won two of their last three games and will attempt to build on that by passing this test at home against the defending champions. Keegan Murray is sidelined for this game with a thumb injury and Domantas Sabonis is listed as questionable. No matter who is on the floor for the Kings, the key will be to limit the damage that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can do.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- The Thunder defeated the Kings 107-101 in their first matchup of the season in OKC.
- The Kings are 4‑4 against the spread this season.
- Oklahoma City is 4-5 against the spread going into this contest.
- The over has cashed in six of Sacramento’s first eight games this season.
- OKC has gone over the total in six of its first nine games.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander (Thunder) | Under 31.5 points |
| Domantas Sabonis (Kings) | Over 12.5 rebounds (if he plays) |
Thunder vs Kings Model Projection
- Score Projection: Thunder 123 – Kings 115
- Win Probability: Thunder 78%, Kings 22%
Final Thoughts
I expect the Thunder to win this game straight up on the road against the Kings. But I do expect it to be a competitive game and one that is decided by single digits on the scoreboard. I’ll take the points with the Kings in this contest, though bettors may want to wait until they know that Domas Sabonis is playing before they lock in any action with Sacramento.
