The 2020-21 NBA season continues with a couple of games on Tuesday night including the Northwest Division showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets, so here’s the latest odds update on Sugarhouse Sportsbook along with the best betting pick and tips.
The Thunder are coming without starting center Al Horford who’ll miss his fourth straight game due to personal reasons. The Nuggets, on the other side, are without Michael Porter Jr. (COVID-19), while Gary Harris is questionable to play (personal).
OKC tips off a five-game road trip
The Oklahoma City Thunder (6-6; 7-5 ATS) will play their next five games against the Western Conference on the road including a two-game set with the Clippers. They’ve just wrapped up a three-game homestand with a 127-125 overtime victory over the Chicago Bulls to stop a two-game slide.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the way for OKC, notching 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per contest. He had a big game against Chicago, finishing with a double-double of 33 points and 10 assists. Veteran PG George Hill averages 11.4 points and 3.5 assists, while Darius Bazley adds 10.4 points and 7.6 rebounds a night.
The Thunder have struggled offensively thus far, scoring only 103.9 points per 100 possessions (29th in the NBA) on 44.8% shooting from the field (20th) and 33.0% from beyond the arc (27th). They surrender 109.8 points in a return (16th) on 46.2% shooting from the field (18th) and 35.8% from downtown (9th).
The Nuggets close down a three-game homestand
The Denver Nuggets (6-7; 4-9 ATS) will hit the road after Tuesday’s clash with the Thunder and meet some tough teams for the rest of the month. Hereof, the Nuggets want to bounce back from a 109-105 home loss to the Utah Jazz and get things going ahead of their road trip.
Denver is certainly one of the unpleasant surprises of the 2020-21 NBA season. The Nuggets are terrible defensively, allowing 113.4 points per 100 possessions (26th) on 48.4% shooting from the field (also 26th) and 39.1% from deep (also 26th). And they average only 97.7 possessions per 48 minutes!
Nikola Jokic tallies the team-high 25.0 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game. Jamal Murray adds 20.3 points and 4.0 assists a night, but all other guys are far away from good form. The Nuggets score 116.2 points per 100 possessions (3rd) on 48.3% shooting from the field (5th) and 37.7% from beyond the 3-point line (9th).
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”nba/nuggets” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Trends:
Oklahoma City:
- 1-11 ATS in the last 12 games against Denver
Denver:
- 5-0 ATS in the last five home tilts against OKC
The Winner Prediction
I don’t know who cares for Nikola Jokic’s triple-doubles as long as the Nuggets continue to play lousy defense and have a sub.-500 record. Denver needs to regroup as soon as possible and start playing aggressive and responsible D, or the Nuggets will be in big trouble.
If you compare these two teams, the Nuggets are a million times better than the Thunder. However, OKC works hard and gets nothing for granted, and that’s why the Thunder sit above the Nuggets in the Western Conference standings.
I’m looking for the Nuggets to exploit OKC’s frontcourt that is quite shorthanded without Al Horford. It’s a big chance for Nikola Jokic to extend his domination, and I can only hope the Nuggets will improve on the defensive end.
NBA Prediction: Take Denver -9.5 at -120
The Total:
Despite the Nuggets’ slow pace, the over has hit in 12 of their last 16 games overall. On the other side, four of OKC’s last six contests went in the over, so I’m going to follow these trends and bet on the over.
Also, the over is 3-1 in the last four encounters between Oklahoma City and Denver, but only two of those four contests produced more than 219 points in total. Still, I’m looking for a high-scoring affair because of the Nuggets’ poor defense and some quite efficient offense on the other side.
Pick: Go over 219.5 points at -110