For the second time in three days, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets will face off against each other, but this time, the Nuggets will host the T-Wolves at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
The Nuggets beat the Timberwolves 124-109 this past Sunday, easily covering an 8.5-point spread on the road. Denver is undefeated in nine consecutive matchups with Minnesota, and the Nuggets opened as massive double-digit favorites for Tuesday’s clash, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Minnesota looks helpless without KAT
The Minnesota Timberwolves (2-4; 2-4 ATS) have been riding a four-game losing streak since Karl-Anthony Towns hit the sidelines with a wrist injury. They’ve yielded 124 or more points in each of those four outings while also failing to cover the spread on all four occasions.
The T-Wolves kept it close for most of Sunday’s game, but they collapsed down the stretch, allowing 41 fourth-quarter points. Minnesota shot 51.8% from the field, but the Timberwolves couldn’t defend anything, especially in the last eight minutes of the game.
Malik Beasley had 25 points on 10-for-16 shooting against Denver, and he’s leading the way for the Timberwolves this season with 19.0 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. Minnesota has the fifth-worst offensive rating in the league, scoring just 104.0 points per 100 possessions, while the T-Wolves’ defensive rating is the worst in the NBA (117.0).
The Nuggets desperately need a much better defensive effort
The Denver Nuggets (2-4; 2-4 ATS) have dropped four of their first five games this term, and three of those four losses have come at Ball Arena. They’ve lost to Sacramento in overtime, 124-122, the LA Clippers 121-108, and Phoenix 106-103, so the Nuggets had a lot on the table in Minneapolis this past Sunday.
Jamal Murray accounted for 36 points against the Timberwolves while making 13 of his 20 field-goal attempts. He’s averaging 24.0 points and 3.0 assists on the season, while Nikola Jokic is adding 22.3 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 12.8 assists a night.
The Nuggets have the third-best offensive rating in the league, tallying 116.1 points per 100 possessions. However, they allow the same amount in a return, and only the Timberwolves have a worse defense than Denver in the NBA.
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”nba/nuggets” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Trends:
Minnesota:
- 0-4 ATS in the last four games overall
- 5-14 ATS in the last 19 games against Western Conference
Denver:
- 7-2 ATS in the last nine games against Northwest Division
- 5-2 ATS in the last seven games played in January
The Winner Prediction
The Nuggets are a much better team than the KAT-less Timberwolves, and they proved it in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game. Hopefully, the Nuggets will continue with their strong offensive performance and find a way to make a few more stops against the short-handed Timberwolves’ offense.
I don’t like this double-digit spread, but the Nuggets have to start improving defensively and cannot allow another upset on the home court, especially not against this Minnesota team.
Pick: Take Denver -12.5 at -110
The Total:
The Nuggets should drop a bunch of points on the Timberwolves, as they did in Minneapolis last Sunday. I was betting on the under, looking for a much better defensive job, but the Nuggets haven’t played any defense until the fourth quarter.
This time, the line is set slightly lower at 226.5 points, so I’m going with the over. The Nuggets shouldn’t have any problems surpassing a 120-point mark, while the Timberwolves could struggle. Still, the visitors have nothing to lose here, so I hope for a solid shooting night. Minnesota takes 35.0 attempts from deep per game (15th in the NBA), but the Timberwolves make just 31.4% of them (28th).
Pick: Go over 226.5 points at -110