The Milwaukee Bucks head into a road test against the Miami Heat on Wednesday night looking to end a five-game losing streak. Miami rides a five-game win streak into this matchup and is favored to extend that streak at home. Before this NBA Cup group stage matchup tips off at Fiserv Forum, you can continue reading to find my Bucks vs Heat prediction for Thanksgiving Eve.
Our Bucks vs Heat Pick
Pick: Bucks +7.5
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat
- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 26, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
- The Heat arrive to this game with momentum. They have earned five wins in a row, including a 106–102 victory over the Dallas Mavericks. Their balance of offense and physical defense has been impressive as of late and they got Tyler Herro back from injury for that Dallas game, with Herro making an immediate impact offensively.
- The Bucks are sliding. Their current five-game losing streak has been a result of defensive lapses and inconsistent scoring. Without their full complement of playmakers, their issues have compounded.
- Most importantly, Giannis Antetokounmpo remains questionable for the Bucks after a groin strain that forced him out of recent games. He could very well return for this game, though a minutes restriction is possible if he does play in this matchup.
- Milwaukee is without Taurean Prince and Kevin Porter Jr. going into this game as well. Miami has Nikola Jovic, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez and Norman Powell all questionable to compete in this matchup.
- This is a huge game in the NBA Cup. Milwaukee leads East Group C at 2-0 and the Heat are right behind them at 2-1. This game could make it very likely that the Bucks advance, or could open the door for Miami to overtake them.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first meeting between the Heat and Bucks so far this season.
- Miami is 12-6 against the spread this season.
- Milwaukee is 7-11 against the spread going into this game.
- The over is 10-8 in games featuring each of these teams so far this year.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Tyler Herro (Miami) | Over 19.5 Points |
| Myles Turner (Milwaukee) | Over 6.5 Rebounds |
| Kel’el Ware (Miami) | Over 11.5 Rebounds |
Bucks vs Heat Model Projection
Score Projection: Milwaukee 112 – Miami 117
Win Probability: Milwaukee 28%, Miami 72%
Final Thoughts
The Heat should be able to win at home to level these teams at 2-1 in NBA Cup action this year. But I’m taking the points with the Bucks in this contest. Antetokounmpo could very well come back for this contest, which would give the Bucks a huge lift on both ends of the floor. Expect this to be a close game no matter who comes out on top in South Florida.
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