The NBA Christmas Day slate will continue with an elite Eastern Conference matchup between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks. The last two Eastern Conference champions will go at it here, in a game that could decide the top team in the East after the holiday. In our NBA predictions for Christmas Day, we look closely at this Bucks vs Celtics contest from TD Garden.
Bucks vs Celtics Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Under 223 |
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This game will be played at TD Garden at 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, December 25, 2022.
Why Bet the Under:
✅ Both of these teams are in the top-10 in the NBA in defensive rating this season. They are elite at getting stops, and the return of Robert Williams for the Celtics will only help them on the defensive end.
✅ Milwaukee may not have Khris Middleton for this game in Boston. He has missed several recent contests due to a sore knee, and he will either be banged up on the floor or be off the floor, both of which will help the under.
✅ Neither of these teams have been big over teams this year, as they are a combined 31-30-4 to the over on the year. Against another elite defense, both teams will be a little slower than usual offensively to bring this game under the number.
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
Boston Celtics
Team Stats Per Game
Team Stats Per 100 Poss
Offense/Defense
| MIL | Team Stats Per 100 Poss | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Games | 26 |
| 41.4 | FG | 42.0 |
| 85.6 | FGA | 91.2 |
| .484 | FG% | .461 |
| 14.5 | 3Pt-FG | 12.5 |
| 37.2 | 3Pt-FGA | 35.6 |
| .389 | 3Pt% | .350 |
| 26.9 | 2Pt-FG | 29.6 |
| 48.4 | 2Pt-FGA | 55.5 |
| .557 | 2Pt% | .532 |
| 17.2 | FT | 13.9 |
| 23.6 | FTA | 18.1 |
| .729 | FT% | .771 |
| 8.1 | ORB | 10.3 |
| 35.2 | DRB | 34.2 |
| 43.4 | TRB | 44.5 |
| 24.3 | AST | 24.5 |
| 7.2 | STL | 7.1 |
| 5.8 | BLK | 4.1 |
| 14.2 | TOV | 13.6 |
| 19.1 | PF | 19.5 |
| 114.5 | PTS | 110.5 |
Defense/Offense
| MIL | Team Stats Per 100 Poss | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Games | 26 |
| 41.0 | FG | 42.0 |
| 90.7 | FGA | 91.7 |
| .451 | FG% | .458 |
| 13.7 | 3Pt-FG | 19.1 |
| 37.9 | 3Pt-FGA | 51.4 |
| .361 | 3Pt% | .372 |
| 27.3 | 2Pt-FG | 22.9 |
| 52.8 | 2Pt-FGA | 40.3 |
| .516 | 2Pt% | .568 |
| 17.5 | FT | 17.6 |
| 21.4 | FTA | 22.1 |
| .818 | FT% | .796 |
| 10.8 | ORB | 10.6 |
| 34.3 | DRB | 34.4 |
| 45.1 | TRB | 45.1 |
| 25.5 | AST | 26.2 |
| 7.6 | STL | 7.5 |
| 4.2 | BLK | 5.6 |
| 13.1 | TOV | 12.2 |
| 20.0 | PF | 16.5 |
| 113.1 | PTS | 120.7 |
Four Factors
Offense/Defense
| MIL | Four Factors | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| .568 | eFG% | .529 |
| 12.9 | TOV% | 12.1 |
| 19.2 | RB% | 77.0 |
| .201 | FT/FGA | .153 |
Defense/Offense
| MIL | Four Factors | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| .527 | eFG% | .563 |
| 11.5 | TOV% | 10.7 |
| 76.5 | RB% | 23.7 |
| .193 | FT/FGA | .192 |
Analytics
| MIL | Analytics | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pythag Wins | 20 |
| 11 | Pythag Losses | 6 |
| 1.40 | Margin Of Victory | 10.15 |
| 114.5 | O Rtg | 120.7 |
| 113.1 | D Rtg | 110.5 |
| 98.5 | Pace | 98.2 |
| .276 | FTr | .241 |
| .435 | 3PAr | .561 |
| .596 | TS% | .595 |
Betting Trends
| MIL | Betting Trends | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 1-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-2-0 |
| 1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
| 111.33 | Avg Score | 108.33 |
| 117 | Avg Opp Score | 107 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 1-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-2-0 |
| 1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
| 111.33 | Avg Score | 108.33 |
| 117 | Avg Opp Score | 107 |
| MIL | Betting Trends | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 2-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 2-3-0 |
| 2-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-3-1 |
| 111.6 | Avg Score | 111.2 |
| 118 | Avg Opp Score | 111.2 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 1-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-4-0 |
| 1-4-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-4-0 |
| 105.4 | Avg Score | 110 |
| 118 | Avg Opp Score | 111.6 |
| MIL | Betting Trends | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 6-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-5-0 |
| 4-5-1 | ATS W/L/P | 4-5-1 |
| 111.9 | Avg Score | 110 |
| 111.8 | Avg Opp Score | 109.2 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 5-5-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 6-4-0 |
| 2-6-2 | ATS W/L/P | 6-4-0 |
| 105.8 | Avg Score | 120.1 |
| 110.6 | Avg Opp Score | 112.1 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are in a heated race with the Boston Celtics for the top spot in the Eastern Conference this year. That makes this NBA Christmas Day affair an even bigger deal than it would be otherwise. With the winner of this game likely to go into 2023 as the East’s top team, this contest is a fascinating one for multiple reasons for Milwaukee.
There are a few concerns for the Bucks coming into this game, though. The potential absence of Khris Middleton combined with the return of Rob Williams for the Celtics could make things tougher than they usually are for Giannis Antetokoumpo. Boston has its top paint protector back, which could make it tougher for Giannis to get the looks at the rim that he normally does.
Boston Celtics
On the Boston Celtics side, the last couple of weeks have been strange. They are still among the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but they have lost some really winnable games against Eastern Conference opponents. Included in that has been back to back losses to the Orlando Magic, along with a loss to the Indiana Pacers.
In this game, the Celtics will look to their defense to get them back on the right track at home against the Bucks. Boston ranks seventh in the NBA in defensive rating on the year, but that number should get better as the season wears on now that they have Rob Williams back to patrol the paint. If they can squeeze a few extra stops out of Williams’ return, the Celtics could win this game and get back to the top of the East standings.
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