The Phoenix Suns probably wouldn’t mind seeing the Eastern Conference Finals pushed to a seventh game. The Milwaukee Bucks do not want that to happen. The Bucks, sans Giannis Antetokounmpo, can advance to the NBA Finals with a win in Game 6 on Saturday night in Atlanta. The host Hawks will try to prevent seeing a celebration on their home floor.
The hope is that Trae Young can play for Atlanta in Game 6 and the line seems to suggest something between playing and not playing, as the Hawks are favorites of -2.5, but that line will go up if Young plays, assuming that Giannis does not. And that seems like a safe assumption to make.
Superstar Subtraction Theory in Action
When the Atlanta Hawks lost Trae Young late in the third quarter of Game 3, everybody did a little bit more in Game 4 and rallied the troops to even up the series at 2-2. We saw the same from the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5 right after Giannis Antetokounmpo went out with a knee injury that could very well have ended his postseason.
Both teams got instant bumps from losing their stars. Now that the dust has settled, what happens in Game 6? Will the Bucks be able to keep running that small lineup and be able to play with a little more pace and creativity? Will the Hawks actually get their star back? If so, what impact can a hobbled Young actually have?
There are a lot of questions and few answers for Game 6 on that front. A one game bump happens with regularity. How teams fare in that second game after the adrenaline and the intensity ramp down is truly the question.
Is Trae’s Return A Negative for Hawks?
Hear me out on this one. While Trae Young has had some really big games in the playoffs, he is shooting under 43% from the floor and just 32.6% from three-point land. Young will have a high usage rate if he plays and he’ll undoubtedly be playing at less than 100%. Maybe Young at 75 or 80% is better than the other options that the Hawks have, but maybe he isn’t and it could actually be a detriment to the team.
Young would likely be on a minutes restriction. Could that keep the Hawks offense from getting into rhythm? He’s had almost four turnovers per game in the playoffs. Will a case of hero ball coupled with the injury lead to more bad decisions?
You could make a case, as crazy as it sounds, that the Hawks are better off without Young and should just go with what worked in Game 4 and what led to a good offensive night for Game 5.
Can The Bucks Keep Cashing In?
Milwaukee had a huge offensive game in Game 5. The 123 points were far more reminiscent of the regular season than the postseason. Milwaukee shot better than 50% from the floor overall. The team continued to struggle on three-point shots, coming in at just 31%, but that was still slightly higher than the postseason-to-date success rate.
All of that was without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Khris Middleton stepped up. Brook Lopez dropped 33 points. It was something of an out-of-body experience for the Bucks, at least based on how they’ve performed in these playoffs.
You really have to question Milwaukee’s ability to do that two games in a row given how inefficient the offense has been and how poor the distance shooting has gone to this point.
NBA Free Pick – Bucks vs. Hawks Game 6
This is a really tough game to handicap. We can reasonably assume that Giannis will not play, but all signs seem to point to Trae Young in the lineup for the Hawks. That will be viewed as a positive with regards to the betting odds, but maybe it really isn’t as big of one as that line move would suggest.
The Bucks seem to have found something that works in Game 5 and may be able to adopt that “all hands on deck” approach once again for Game 6. Don’t even take the points here. Just go ahead and take Milwaukee on the money line.