The Denver Nuggets (26-12) take on the Los Angeles Clippers (27-12) at the Pepsi Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 12, 2020, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Denver is a 1-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221 points.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The last time the Clippers played, they defeated the Golden State Warriors, 109-100, but they failed to cover as 14.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (209) finished under the projected point total of 217. Los Angeles’ 0.554 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Golden State, who had a mark of 0.427. The Clippers’ mark was above their season average of 0.527, while the Warriors’ was below their season average of 0.485. Los Angeles was led by Kawhi Leonard, who was the game’s high scorer with 36 points on 14-for-25 shooting.
The Nuggets were beaten by the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last contest, 111-103, despite being 4.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (214) came in under the projected point total of 223.5. Cleveland’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Denver. The Cavaliers had a rate of 27.9 (above their season average of 23.8), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 20.4. Denver’s Nikola Jokic recorded 19 points, 12 rebounds and five assists in the contest.
Denver appears to have an advantage on the offensive glass in this contest. The Nuggets rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (24.7 percent), while Los Angeles ranks 16th in defensive rebounding percentage (77.0 percent).
Los Angeles holds records of 27-12 straight up (SU) and 20-18-1 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Clippers have gone under the total 53.8 percent of the time.
Denver is 26-12 SU, but they have difficulty covering the spread (14-18-5 ATS). Of the Nuggets’ 37 games with betting action, 21 have finished under the total.
After the Nuggets won three out of four games against the Clippers last season, these teams will battle for the first time this year. In the last matchup, Denver won 123-96. Denver’s rebounding was their biggest strength. The Nuggets had 12 offensive rebounds and 56 total rebounds, while the Clippers had seven and 38, respectively.
Clippers vs. Nuggets Pick
Free NBA Tip: ATS Winner – Clippers, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
Los Angeles is 9-9 ATS on the road with 10 unders and 8 overs.
Denver is 6-10-3 ATS at home with 12 unders and 7 overs.
Los Angeles is 11-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Denver is 10-1.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Nuggets are 24-8 and the Clippers are 25-8.
Denver ranks seventh in steals allowed per game (7.0) while Los Angeles ranks 28th (8.4).
The Nuggets rank fifth in fast break points allowed per game (12.2) while the Clippers rank 25th (15.2).
Denver ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.3) while Los Angeles ranks 18th (17.5).
The Clippers rank seventh in points in the paint per game (49.3) while the Nuggets rank 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (49.3).
Los Angeles ranks third in rebounds per game (48.1) while Denver ranks 17th (44.4).
The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (26.2) while the Clippers rank 18th (23.4).
Los Angeles ranks 18th in three pointers attempted per game (32.6) while Denver ranks 26th (30.0).
The Clippers rank first in second chance points per game (15.1) while the Nuggets rank seventh (14.1).
Over its last five games, Los Angeles is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Denver is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Clippers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.6, down from 6.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 114.2 points per game (5.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.2 points per game (9.8 above their season average).
