The Golden State Warriors (6-5) will take on the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder (10-1) on Tuesday night. The Thunder’s title defense is off to a great start and they will try to keep rolling in this matchup on their home floor. Before tip-off from OKC, you can continue reading to get my thoughts on this game, including my Warriors vs Thunder prediction.
Our Warriors vs Thunder Pick
- Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder –7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date & Time: Tuesday, November 11, 2025, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
- The Warriors are welcoming back star guard Stephen Curry after missing three games due to illness. He’s cleared to play, which is a boost for a Golden State team that went 1-2 without him.
- Golden State has struggled on the road. They’ve dropped five straight games away from home this season, often by significant margins.
- The Thunder are rolling. At 10-1, they’re off to a dominant start, with elite production from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and excellent support from Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Their defense has been terrific once again and they will try to get a big win here.
- This is the first home game for OKC since November 2. The Thunder went 3-1 during their recent four-game road trip and they will try to keep things moving in a positive direction here.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Warriors are 6-5 against the spread going into this game.
- OKC is also 6-5 against the spread heading into this matchup.
- OKC games are 6-5 to the over so far this year.
- Golden State is 7-4 to the over heading into this matchup.
- This is the first of four regular-season matchups scheduled between the Warriors and Thunder this year.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 32.5 points |
| Chet Holmgren | Over 16.5 points |
| Stephen Curry | Under 24.5 points (returning from illness) |
Warriors vs Thunder Model Projection
Score Projection: Oklahoma City Thunder 115 – Golden State Warriors 104
Win Probability: Thunder 70%, Warriors 30%
Final Thoughts
The Thunder’s only loss so far this season came on the second night of a back-to-back on the road. Rested and at home here, I expect OKC to continue to roll in this contest. I’ll go with the Thunder to win, cover the spread, and stay undefeated at home against a Warriors team that has only won one road game in six tries this year.
