The Miami Heat return home on Monday to take on a struggling Dallas Mavericks squad. The Heat are rolling, riding a four-game winning streak, and will look to benefit from the season debut of All-Star guard Tyler Herro. Dallas comes into this matchup reeling at 5–13, battling inconsistency and injury issues. Before tip-off from South Florida, you can continue reading to get my Mavericks vs Heat prediction on Monday night.
Our Mavericks vs Heat Pick
- Pick: Miami Heat –8.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Get all of our NBA best bets before tip-off!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat
- Date & Time: Monday, November 24, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
- Herro’s return: Tyler Herro is expected to make his 2025–26 season debut in this game after surgery on his left ankle. He underwent the procedure in September and is expected to return tonight. This could provide a major scoring and playmaking boost for Miami.
- Mavericks’ injury troubles: Dallas enters this contest undermanned. Dante Exum is out for the season after knee surgery. Kyrie Irving remains out, Dereck Lively II is ruled out with knee issues, and Anthony Davis is listed as day-to-day with a calf strain. The Mavs are in rough shape and that has prevented them from reaching their full potential.
- Young Mavericks core: Rookie Cooper Flagg, the No. 1 overall pick, is showing flashes of brilliance in his first season as a pro. He recently posted a 21-point, 8-rebound, 5-assist performance. But his efficiency remains a concern as he gets his feet wet in the league, and Dallas lacks veteran scoring without Irving or consistent production from Davis.
- Miami’s offensive momentum: The Heat are averaging 124.9 points per game and their ball movement and depth have carried them while Herro was out.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first meeting of the season between the Mavericks and Heat.
- Against the spread, the Mavericks are just 7–11 this season. Miami has been much sharper, covering in 12 of 17 games.
- Miami has gone over the total in 10 of their first 17 games this season. Dallas has stayed under the total in 12 of their first 18 outings.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | Over 16.5 points |
| Bam Adebayo | Over 9.5 rebounds |
| Cooper Flagg | Over 15.5 points |
Mavericks vs Heat Model Projection
Score Projection: Mavericks 109 – Heat 123
Win Probability: Mavericks 25%, Heat 75%
Final Thoughts
Monday’s matchup heavily favors the Heat. With Herro returning and reinvigorating the offense, and Dallas missing critical pieces, Miami has more than enough firepower to win comfortably. Betting on the Heat offers good value given their recent hot streak and roster advantages. Even with Miami on the second leg of a back-to-back here, I’ll lay the points with the hosts.
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