The Dallas Mavericks head to Staples Center in LA to take on the Los Angeles Lakers on the NBA Christmas Day, so hereโs the best betting pick for Fridayโs showdown along with the latest team news and odds update on Sugarhouse Sportsbook.
The Mavs and Lakers played some memorable games over the last few years, but Dallas has won just one of its last nine contests against LA. Last season, the Lakers went 3-1 straight up and ATS against the Mavericks.
Dallas started the new season with a tough loss in Phoenix
The Dallas Mavericks tipped off their campaign with a 106-102 defeat at the Phoenix Suns this past Wednesday. They trailed by a few points for most of the game and just couldnโt cope with the Suns down the stretch, scoring six points in the final three minutes.
Luka Doncic led the way for Dallas with 32 points, eight rebounds, and five assists, but he missed all his six attempts from downtown and shot 11-for-26 from the field. The Mavs made only 42.4% of their field goals and 24.3% of their 3-pointers while handing out just 17 assists.
Dallas is without Kristaps Porzingis (knee), so Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, and Willie Cauley-Stein will have to do a much better job in the next few weeks. The Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle stated that Porzingis doesnโt have a timetable for full clearance, and the Mavs have to cope without their best frontcourt player.
It was another bitter pill to swallow on the opening night for the Lakers
The reigning NBA champions started the previous season with a 112-102 loss to the LA Clippers, so they shouldnโt mind a 116-109 defeat to their city rivals this past Tuesday. Still, losing to the Clippers never feels good, and the Lakers will have to make some amends Friday against the Mavs.
Dennis Schroder had a nice debut in the Lakers uniform, accounting for 14 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists. LeBron James scored 22 points along with five assists, while Anthony Davis added 18 points and seven rebounds.
The Lakers allowed too many points in the paint (50) and committed too many turnovers (19). Also, they didnโt look quite motivated, while the Clippers were obviously ready to rumble and beat their arch-rivals.
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”nba/lakers” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Trends:
Dallas:
- 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games overall
- 2-8 ATS in the last ten games on the road
- 1-4 ATS in the last five tilts against the Western Conference
LA Lakers:
- 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the Southwest Division
- 7-2 ATS in the last nine games against Dallas
The Winner Prediction
This will be a competitive game, but Iโm buying a couple of points and taking the Lakers as 3.5-point favorites. The hosts should torture the Mavs in the paint, but the visitors will stand a chance of upsetting the odds if they shoot the ball well.
Without Porzingis, the Mavs will have to lean heavily on Luka Doncic, and that could be a problem in the fourth quarter. I expect Luka to put on a strong performance and help the Mavs stay close, but the Lakers look like a better team at the moment and will be keen to bounce back from a disappointing loss in the battle of LA.
Pick: Take Los Angeles Lakers -3.5 at -160
The Total:
The under has hit in nine of the Mavericksโ last 11 games overall. The last five encounters between the Mavs and Lakers in LA went in the under, too, so I suggest you follow these trends.
The Mavericks had the best offensive rating in the NBA this past regular season. However, Porzingisโ absence is a huge blow for Dallasโ offense, so the Mavs need to be more patient, especially against the Lakers who had the third-best defensive rating last season.
Pick: Go under 227.5 points at -110