Two European superstars will face off against each other Thursday night, as Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks take on Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, so I’ve prepared the best betting pick for this Western Conference showdown along with the latest odds update on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Both Dallas and Denver enter this game with a disappointing 3-4 record. Still, they’ve won last time out and will look to stay on the winning path, promising a great battle at Ball Arena in Denver.
The Mavs will wrap up a three-game road trip
The Dallas Mavericks (3-4; 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 113-100 victory at the Houston Rockets, bouncing back from a tough 118-108 defeat at the Chicago Bulls. Luka Doncic sat out the clash in Chicago due to a quad injury, but he returned to the floor against the Rockets and posted a triple-double of 33 points, 16 rebounds, and 11 assists.
Tim Hardaway Jr. also had a big night in Houston, making eight of his ten attempts from deep and finishing with 30 points and seven assists. The Mavs won the battle on the glass (51-35) while limiting the Rockets to only 39.0% shooting from the field.
Dallas is still without Kristaps Porzingis (knee), but all other guys are ready to play. The Mavs score 109.2 points per 100 possessions (14th in the NBA) while yielding 106.6 in a return (11th). They rank third in opponent 3-point percentage (32.5%) while making just 32.2% of their 3-pointers (28th).
The Nuggets easily topped the T-Wolves
The Denver Nuggets (3-4; 2-5 ATS) have won two straight games, outlasting the Minnesota Timberwolves 124-109 as 8.5-point road favorites and 123-116 as 9.5-point home favorites. They have no problems beating the KAT-less Timberwolves, though Minnesota kept it close last Tuesday in Denver.
Nikola Jokic dominated the T-Wolves in that seven-point home win, accounting for 35 points, 15 rebounds, and six assists. On the season, Jokic is averaging a triple-double of 24.1 points, 11.7 boards, and 11.9 assists.
Denver is coming in full strength, as Michael Porter Jr. cleared the COVID-19 protocol and will return from a three-game absence. Porter has averaged 19.5 points and 6.8 rebounds through his four outings this season. The Nuggets tally 116.4 points per 100 possessions (3rd) and allow 115.5 in a return (29th).
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”nba/nuggets” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Trends:
Dallas:
- 5-10 ATS in the last 15 games overall
- 4-10 ATS in the last 14 road games
Denver:
- 5-2 ATS in the last seven tilts against Southwest Division
- 9-3 ATS in the last 12 home games as favorites of 3.5 or fewer points
The Winner Prediction
The Nuggets have been struggling defensively and will need a much better job if they want to beat the Mavs. I expect to see some improvement with Michael Porter back in the lineup, while the Nuggets certainly have a huge advantage over the Mavs in the paint.
Nikola Jokic will dominate this matchup, and the Nuggets should be fired up to play their best defense against the MVP contender, Luka Doncic. Both Denver and Dallas have struggled to cover lately, especially the Mavericks when playing on the road, so give me the hosts and points.
Pick: Take Denver -3.5 at -110
The Total:
Despite the Nuggets’ defensive woes, both these teams prefer to play at a slow pace, so I don’t expect them to combine for 227 or more points. The under has hit in four of their last five head-to-head duels, and neither of those five games produced more than 218 points in total.
The Nuggets have the third-best offensive rating in the NBA, but they average 99.0 possessions per 48 minutes (25th). The Mavs play at an even slower place, posting 98.7 possessions per 48 minutes.
Pick: Go under 226.5 points at -110