The 2021 NBA Eastern Conference Finals begin Wednesday, June 23, as the No. 5 Atlanta Hawks visit the No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, so hereโs the best Hawks vs. Bucks betting pick for Game 1 along with the team stats, betting trends, and the latest odds update.
The Bucks opened as firm 7-point favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook. They sit at -305 to win straight up, while the Hawks are +260 moneyline dogs with a total of 226.5 points.
The Hawks pulled off a huge upset in the semis
The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a brilliant 103-96 road victory over the No. 1 Philadelphia 76ers this past Sunday. They eliminated the top-seeded Sixers in seven games while going 4-3 ATS in the process, and the Hawks proved they have enough depth to compete with the best teams in the league.
Kevin Huerter went off for 27 points in 40 minutes on the floor in Game 7 against Phila, sealing the victory with three clutch free throws. Trae Young went 5-for-23 from the field, and the Hawks still managed to stay in the game and escape with a huge win.
Atlanta made it to the postseason for the first time since 2017. The Hawks are back in the Eastern Conference Finals after six years mostly thanks to their exceptional work rate and in spite of the lack of experience.
Trae Young averaged 25.3 points and 9.4 assists per game this past regular season, his third in the NBA, and the 22-year-old playmaker is tallying 29.1 points and 10.4 assists a night in his first postseason. The Hawks have scored 106.3 points per game over their previous 12 outings while yielding 105.0 in a return.
The Bucks sent KDโs Nets home
The Milwaukee Bucks pulled off an upset in the previous round, too. They also needed seven games to get past Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets, going 3-4 ATS in the process. The Bucks overcame a 2-0 deficit in the semis, as we saw some spectacular battles including Milwaukeeโs 115-111 overtime victory in Game 7 this past Saturday.
Giannis Antetokounmpo accounted for 40 points and 13 rebounds in that thriller, while the Bucksโ defense did a terrific job, holding the Nets to just 30.8% shooting from the field. KD had 48 points, but the Bucks found a way to slow down his teammates and reach the conference finals for the second time in three years.
Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.8 points, 13.6 boards, and 5.1 dimes on the postseason, and heโs getting a lot of help from Khris Middleton (23.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Jrue Holiday (15.2 PPG, 7.5 APG). The Bucks are yielding just 102.3 points per game while scoring 107.9 in a return.
Trends:
Atlanta:
- 1-5 ATS in the last six games as underdogs of seven or more points
- 3-6 ATS in the last nine games played on Wednesday
Milwaukee:
- 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 Pick
The Bucks went 2-1 straight up and ATS against the Hawks this past regular season. Those two wins came by 11 and 14 points, while the Hawks beat the Bucks 111-104 at home in their previous encounter.
Both teams will struggle with fatigue after playing all seven games in the semifinals. The Hawks have some injury problems, as Bogdan Bogdanovic and Cam Reddish are questionable to play, and Bogdanovic (13.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG) has been a vital part of Atlantaโs starting lineup recently.
Therefore, Iโm backing the Bucks to take the first blood and cover a 7-point spread. The Hawks might struggle to cope with Giannis in the opener, and the Bucksโ defense must be fired up after beating the mighty Nets team.
NBA Picks: Take Milwaukee Bucks -7.0 at -110ย ย ย ย ย
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 Total:
The under is 5-1-1 in the Bucksโ previous seven outings, and it is 5-1 in the Hawksโ last six showings. Four of the last five meetings between Atlanta and Milwaukee went in the under, too, so I will stick with the betting trends and take the under on the totals.
It’s a tricky wager, considering the Bucksโ temptation to push the ball in transition. I hope the Hawks will be able to slow things down, as theyโre averaging just 11.4 turnovers per game this postseason.
NBA Total Pick: Go under 226.5 points at -110ย ย