A surprising favorite is atop the betting board for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 this weekend at Sonoma Raceway. The race was canceled last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as NASCAR officials mostly stayed along the East Coast to limit travel and limit exposure as much as possible for the drivers and the teams.
A major change from 2018 to 2019 has held with this race, as the drivers run this particular road course format for just the second time. That means that we have a lot to talk about as the Cup Series prepares for its third road course of seven scheduled for this season.
Odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can sign up and get up to a $1000 Deposit Bonus with your initial deposit. It is a great place to bet NASCAR, as group matchups and head-to-heads will be posted later in the week and you get one of the first looks at the outright winner board as well.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 Betting Odds
You could have made a prop that read, “Will Martin Truex Jr. be the favorite of the Toyota/Save Mart 350?” and I’d already be 0-1 on the race. It is not Truex, a three-time winner at Sonoma, atop the board. Instead, it is Chase Elliott, who is regarded as the best road course driver active in NASCAR today. Elliott is the +225 favorite with Truex at +400 to win and +110 to finish in the top three.
Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson are +800 with their own little Kyle party as the co-third favorites. Denny Hamlin is +1200, followed by William Byron at +1400 and then some bigger prices on down from there. As is often the case with a couple of short prices at the top, we see the middle compressed a little bit, as seven drivers are priced from +1200 to +2500.
Usually we see seven drivers in single digits or at 10/1, but road course races and some of the other quirks of the season are going to be priced a little differently.
Scouting Out Sonoma
Sonoma Raceway had hosted a NASCAR Cup Series race every since 1989 before last year’s cancellation. An extra Charlotte date was added in place of Sonoma. We’ve had some interesting winners here over the years, including Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and Martin Truex Jr., before he was the MTJ that we all know from Furniture Row and Joe Gibbs Racing. That win was with Michael Waltrip Racing in 2013 and just the second of Truex’s career.
A fundamental change to the race took place for 2019. As part of Sonoma’s 50th Anniversary, NASCAR opted to run on the 2.52-mile track instead of the 1.99-mile track. It didn’t stop Truex from winning, but it appears to be a change for good, as the Toyota/Save Mart 350 is now more like the 365 with 12.7 extra kilometers to the race.
The drivers will run 90 laps with 12 turns and average speeds in the 80-85 mph range. Dirt and dust can blow around quite a bit here, so the drivers will hope for calm winds and the ability to stay on the road to avoid spinning out on the slippery sand.
Who Has Had Success Here?
Jeff Gordon had the most success here with five career wins, but the Rainbow Warrior is now a commentator and a really good resource to have for this race. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch are the only active multiple winners here. This is only a once-a-year stop for the Cup Series, so the sample sizes aren’t as big as usual.
The other Busch has actually done better here overall for his career, as Kurt has seven top-five finishes and 10 top-10 results. He’s tied with Kevin Harvick for the most top-10 outcomes, but stands alone with the most top fives. He and Harvick each have 19 starts here.
Kyle has two wins and five-top five finishes in 15 starts, but he hasn’t won here since 2015 and went seven years between victories. Truex has two consecutive wins in this race to go along with his 2013 triumph.
Denny Hamlin has four top-five finishes and six in the top 10 out of 14 starts. There really aren’t a whole lot of guys that have had consistent success here and a lot of those that did are retired.
Who Has Had Recent Success Here?
Nobody has had more recent success here than Martin Truex Jr. He won in 2018. He won in 2019. He led the most laps in 2017. He was fifth in 2016. That was the first year in which he ran a Toyota for Furniture Row Racing. Everything really changed for him with that partnership. Prior to 2016, Truex had raced for 12 years and had two wins. He has 28 since.
Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have each finished in the top 10 in the last five races. Busch has a win and four top-five finishes. Harvick has a win and three top-five finishes. Brad Keselowski is actually fourth in points over the last five races with 162, followed by Joey Logano with 160, and then Kurt Busch with 159.
Kurt has four top-10 finishes in his last five starts here. He finished outside the top 10 in 2019 for the first time since 2014 and just the second time since 2010. He’s been very consistent here and it has regularly been one of his best tracks.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks
Kurt Busch at +4000 has to be on your card this week. Even if he doesn’t win, +1000 for a top-three finish is a good luck and he’ll have good odds for a top-five or top-10 as more lines get posted. He’ll also be a good bet in head-to-head matchups and group matchups.
Martin Truex Jr. at +400 is the safest bet of them all. Chase Elliott seems like a deserving favorite, but Truex is the man to beat here.
Kevin Harvick at +1800 isn’t a bad bet either. He’s not having a great season, but he’s run very well here at what is essentially his home track and he’s finished in the top 10 in five of his last six races this season.