UFC Vegas 61 is a Fight Night card that will take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This Fight Night card has a solid main event and a good amount of intriguing and well-made fights. There are a multitude of fights that have a very live underdog, leaving for a wide range of outcomes. We also have a handful where we have a good deal of certainty on how they will play out, allowing us some very solid betting options.
UFC Vegas 61 takes place on Saturday, October 1st, 2022. The fight card is scheduled for 13 fights. The first fighters are scheduled to make the walk to the octagon at 4PM EST. UFC Vegas 61 will be a steaming card. We will not have any televised portions. Both the prelims and the main card will be streamed live on ESPN+.
With the promotion back at the UFC Apex, we will see the comparatively smaller sized octagon in use. This tends to give a slight edge to fighters that prefer grappling and a higher level of engagement.
UFC Vegas 61 Promo Code
Caesars Sportsbook continues to bring the best offer for UFC Vegas 61. They will give you a completely risk free first bet on any UFC Vegas 61 fight. That offer is good for up to $1250! If that is not enough, they will also top you off with tier credits and reward credits as well!
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Quick Look Back
UFC Vegas 60 was our last betting card, and it was a highly successful one. We enjoyed a perfect 3-0 night. We started our night with the moderate risk of taking Joe Pyfer to win inside the distance against Alen Amedovski at -225. Pyfer gave us a super clean knock out to start the night off right. We then had our top underdog on the card in Rodrigo Nascimento against Tanner Boser. Nascimento’s wrestling and level of control on the mat was the difference in the fight and Nascimento took a decision. Our last play of the night was for the co-main event between Chidi Njokuani and Gregory Rodrigues to end inside the distance. We thought the fight was ending in the first round when an Njokuani knee cut Rodrigues to the bone, essentially giving him a unibrow. We had to wait a tick longer, and saw Rodrigues rally in the second round. He came back and finished Njokuani on the mat after landing hard shots of his own. That capped the perfect night and we will look to keep rolling on UFC Vegas 61.
UFC Vegas 61 Fight Card
The UFC Vegas 61 Fight Card is not the best nor the worst we will ever see. We have a solid main event and 13 fights that are mostly well-made. We have some expected decisions and others that are just fireworks and finishes waiting to happen. I would deem half the fights the type that any outcome or winner bringing little surprise, so that speaks to the well-made matchups, even if many are with lesser names inside the promotion.
Main Event
The main event sees grappling ace Mackenzie Dern bring a -235 price tag against Yan Xiaonan. Xiaonan beat middling competition consistently and has recently been given steps up. That has seen her on a two fight skid. Dern has had a similar path, but did win her last fight against Tecia Torres, albeit in a razor thin split decision. We will have a wager on this fight so much more on this one in a bit.
Co-Main Event
The co-main event is at welterweight. We have Randy Brown set as a -315 favorite against very long time vet Francisco Trinaldo. 44 year old Trinado is enjoying one of the better runs of his UFC tenure. He has won five of six fights, but has not exactly had the stiffest of available competition. That is not to say he has fought no one, but he has had to go out and take decisions from just middling competition in most cases. Trinaldo has only been able to find finishes against fighters with questionable durability, so for him to win once again, he will have to find a way to sway the judges in a likely stand up heavy fight.
Randy Brown has also won five of six fights, and has some very big factors in his favor in this fight. The most notable measurables will be an 8” reach advantage, a 6” height advantage and having 12 years of youth on his side. When looking at difficulty of competition, Brown has quietly fought a very good crop of weltereights. He ran into both Belal Muhammad and Niko Price earlier in his UFC tenure. He has recently beaten Khaos Williams, Cowboy Oliveira and Bryan Barbarena. His only recent loss was to Vicente Luque. The rangy striker is creeping up as a fighter that should be settled in the rankings and is likely entering a good spot against a fighter that is not known to be a finisher.
How It Plays Out
I expect the range and volume of Brown to be the biggest factor in this fight. We will likely see some clinch time as well, but the majority of the fight will take place at range. Brown will be able to touch Trinaldo far more often. Trinaldo will not be steam rolled and will bring some level of competition to the fight, but the range puzzle will likely be too much for him. The +100 line for the fight to end inside the distance is a bit surprising, as I think a decision outcome is far more likely than that. Brown is the likely victor via decision, but I am not eager to make a bet north of -300 there.
Remainder Of UFC Vegas 61 Fight Card
We have some strong fighters and fights on the remainder of the card. Sodiq Yusuff will steamroll a new opponent after his previous fight fell through. Brendan Allen is an underdog against Jotko, but Allen is the insanely more dynamic striker with a massively higher ceiling in the UFC and is worth a look. We also have a laundry list of fights where we could see it go either way. Those include Stoliarenko vs Chandler, Silva vs Ronson, Ricci vs Penne, Latifi vs Oleinik, Davis vs Borschev and Castaneda vs Santos.
UFC Vegas 61 Bet Sheet
We have a moderate slate of fights for UFC Vegas 61 and that brings a moderate slate of action. We will have three bets for this card, including action on the main event. While I believe there are live underdogs scattered throughout the card, I do not believe there are any at a price that warrants rushing to the betting window. Let’s get to our three bets on the card.
Click the links below for a full breakdown with recommended betting pick and analyses.
Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan
Raoni Barcelos vs Trevin Jones
Randy Costa vs Guido Cannetti
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Other UFC Vegas 61 Fight Predictions
Randy Brown via decision over Francisco Trinaldo
Sodiq Yusuff via KO over Don Shainis
Daniel Santos via decision over John Castaneda
Mike Davis via decision over Viacheslav Borschev
Ilir Latifi via KO over Aleksei Oleinik
Jessica Penne via decision over Tabatha Ricci
Brendan Allen via KO over Krzysztof Jotko
Maxim Grishin via decision over Philipe Lins
Chelsea Chandler via decision over Julija Stoliarenko