UFC London brings us a very high end Fight Night card for the second consecutive week. Also for the second consecutive week our Fight Night will take place during the day. UFC London takes place on Saturday July 23rd, 2022 at the O2 Arena in London, England. Just like last week the first fighters will make the walk at 11AM EST. The card is well made from top to bottom, and features 14 total fights! It is punctuated with a heavyweight main event with title implications between rising and surging Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes.
Note that even though UFC London is a Fight Night card, it is not taking place at the UFC Apex. The normal size octagon will be used and not the smaller version in the Apex.
UFC London Promo Code
Caesar’s Sportsbook has the best offer out there for UFC London! You can make a wager of up to $1500 completely risk free on any of the fights. If you win, you are paid out as normal. If you lose, your account is credited with free bets in the same amount!
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Quick Look Back
The picks were back on track last week, but a couple of freak occurrences brought us just a 2-2 event on which we lost a small amount of juice. Our first bet of the night was entirely sweat free, and that was on Dustin Jacoby. Jacoby was back to full health and starched Da Un Jung in the first round. Next up was Shane Burgos. Burgos opted for wrestling and grappling early on in the fight, and took the first two rounds with that approach. He burned out his legs with significant time holding a body triangle, and that made the third round a bit dicey, but he walked away with the win. This is where two crazy occurrences turned the night from a smash to a near even night.
We had Sumudaerji ITD at +100. After a first round with more grappling than we wanted to see, Sumudaerji kept it upright in the second round. He absolutely put it on Matt Schnell, and Schnell was certainly out on his feet on a couple occasions. That is when Schnell rallied for one of the most insane comebacks we will ever see. Sumudaerji punched himself out, and was submitted on the mat shortly after. Lastly, and most annoyingly, we had a play on Brian Ortega in the main event. After the world class grappler secured a takedown in the first round, his shoulder inexplicably came out. He was in no submission danger, it was simply a freak occurrence. Unfortunately the injury makes it a loss, but not one we had any control over in a fight that was going exactly how we expected and hoped.
UFC London Fight Card
UFC London has everything we could possibly want from a Fight Night card. It has a high quality main event. UFC London also has a high quality co-main event. It is also has real star power and additionally fighters that will get the live round crown in an absolute fevered frenzy. Not only all of that, there is a high volume of fights, with 14 of them!
Main Event
The main event between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes absolutely has championship implications, as both of these fighters are within one more fight of earning title shots. Tom Aspinall is set as a -135 favorite and the five round fight is -280 to end inside the distance.
Starting with Blaydes, he remains the best wrestler in the heavyweight division. He has also seen his striking catch up with his wrestling game. Blaydes generally beats fighters below his station and struggles with big power punchers. His only UFC losses have to Francis Ngannou twice and Derrick Lewis. Despite the losses coming to very high end and powerful strikers, the wins have come against lesser competition. There is something of a large gap in skill and ability between the fighters he has beaten and the fighters he has lost to. I believe Tom Aspinall is a fighter in that in between, and it will be very interesting to see how Blaydes fares.
How The Main Event Plays Out
We will likely see Blaydes try to test out his striking on Aspinall. I do not believe Blaydes to be the better striker in any capacity here, but he has improved enough to make it competitive. While both fighters are in play for a standing KO, I believe Blaydes the less likely fighter for that outcome. We will likely see Blaydes go to his wrestling, which is elite. He controls and mat returns, but what is interesting is he will not be the better grappler in this fight. Aspinall has the superior BJJ game, but we have never seen that off his back in the octagon.
If Aspinall is taken down, I suspect he will have no issues returning to his feet. The question is whether he tries to put his guard to use to look for a submission or sweep. Either is completely in the realm of possibility. This will also be the first time we will see if Aspinall has a five round gas tank in a grueling fight. There is real possibility this fight could go to deep water.
In totality, I give Aspinall the edge both in the stand up and once on the floor. Of course Blaydes wrestling is superior, and the question is whether that will be the great equalizer in this fight. This really is a great fight for the promotion to make. It will be a real measuring stick for where each fighter truly sits as far as title contention goes. I agree with Aspinall being favored but the fight is too close with too wide of a range of outcomes for a wager.
Co-Main Event
The co-main event is between Chris Curtis and Jack Hermansson at middleweight. Chris Curtis is a short notice replacement for Darren Till. Jack Hermansson is a -115 favorite and the fight is -135 to end inside the distance.
This will be a fun co-main event, and an opportunity for many to learn about Chris Curtis. We will have a wager on this fight so much more on this one later.
Remainder Of UFC London Fight Card
The under card and the remainder of the main card are absolutely phenomenal. Dana has one of the fastest rising stars in Paddy Pimblett fighting in the third last fight. Jordan Leavitt will be Paddy’s toughest fight to date, but I think Paddy progressively takes over as the fight wears on.
Alexander Gustafsson is back in action, and remains one of the better light heavyweights to step into the octagon. He is an underdog in his fight, and we will have more on that one in a bit. Dana also knows hwo to get the crowd in it. That is with Meatball Molly McCann in a fight where she can unload and brawl with Hannah Goldy. Mason Jones, Marc Diakiese and Jai Herbert are also likely to have the crowd heavily invested. Also, very real prospect Muhammad Mokaev is in action as a heavy favorite.
UFC London Bet Sheet
We will have a healthy amount of action once again for UFC London. We will have four total bets. Those will include two underdogs and a low risk slate of action.
One bet that I like that is not included is a moon shot on the first fight of the night. BJJ ace Claudio Silva would return +550 on a win by submission and is worth a dart throw in that spot.
Without any further ado, let’s get to the bets!
Click the links below for a full breakdown with recommended betting picks and analyses.
Jack Hermansson vs Chris Curtis
Alexander Gustafsson vs Nikita Krylov
Volkan Oezdemir vs Paul Craig
Jai Herbert vs Kyle Nelson
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Other UFC London Fight Predictions
Tom Aspinall via KO over Curtis Blaydes
Paddy Pimblett via KO over Jordan Leavitt
Milly McCann via KO over Hannah Goldy
Mason Jones via KO over Ludovit Klein
Marc Diakiese via KO over Damir Hadzovic
Nathaniel Wood via decision over Charles Rosa
Makwan Amirkhani via submission over Jonathan Pearce
Muhammad Mokaev via decision over Charles Johnson
Mandy Bohm via decision over Victoria Leonardo
Claudio Silva via submission over Nicolas Dalby