UFC 279 continues the trend of the promotion being out on the road. Well, at least outside of the UFC Apex. While it is fun to hear every coaching tactic, MMA is simply better with fans in attendance. That will be the case once again as UFC hits T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will kick off on Saturday, September 10th, 2022. The first fighters will make the walk to the octagon at 6PM EST. The fight card is scheduled for 13 fights.
We will follow the normal broadcast schedule for pay per view events. The early prelims will stream live on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+. The televised prelims will air on ESPN News and stream on ESPN+ at 8PM EST. The pay per view portion will stream on ESPN+ at 10PM EST.
With the promotion on the road and not at the UFC Apex, we will see the comparatively larger sized octagon in use. This tends to give a slight edge to fighters that prefer range and a lower level of engagement.
UFC 279 Promo Code
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Quick Look Back
UFC Paris did not offer us a world of options from a betting perspective, but we did capitalize where we could. We were spot on for both of our betting picks for that card. We started with Nasrat Haqparast against John Makdessi. Haqparast progressively grew into the fight and outclassed Makdessi, winning an easy decision call to get the night started correctly. Robert Whittaker was our second and final betting pick of the evening. I thought he was simply levels above Marvin Vettori and their fight certainly played out that way. To put it mildly, Whittaker put on an absolute clinic on Vettori. Vettori had absolutely nothing to offer and Bobby Knucks domination was complete and continuous till the end of an easy decision call. We will look to keep that momentum rolling for UFC 279.
UFC 279 Fight Card
We have the odd pay per view event that does not feature any title fights. We instead get massive prospect turned contender Khamzat Chimaev thrust into the main event spotlight. He will take on Nate Diaz in what is almost certainly his very last UFC fight. We have a fight card that has solid names and likely fun fights throughout, but the selling power is all in the main event. The co-main event sees Li Jingliang in his biggest spotlight fight to date against Tony Ferguson.
Main Event
It is rare in this day and age to see a UFC main event sport the largest betting line on the card. It is even more rare for a pay per view event to have that distinction, but that is the case in this fight. Khamazat Chimaev ranges from a -1050 to -1150 betting favorite depending on the sportsbook.
Sadly, the betting line is accurate and this is likely the last stepping stone for Chimaev before getting a title shot. Regardless of opponent, Chimaev will likely be favored regardless of opponent once he gets that title opportunity. Chimaev will simply hold huge advantages in this fight in essentially all aspects. While Nate Diaz is probably a better grappler, he is nowhere near the level of Chimaevโs most recent opponent in Gilbert Burns. That grappling advantage will be nullified by the absolute monstrous wrestling ability of Chimaev.
Chimaev is the much larger and stronger fighter, and that advantage will certainly show up in any wrestling exchanges. It will also show up as he will be the much more powerful striker. While Diaz has some dog in him, he simply does not have that KO power to finish a fighter like Chimaev. Diaz only realistic path to victory will be snatching up a flash submission in a scramble, and that is an extremely low percentage one. We of course will be sitting out of a main event with such a large betting line, but look for Chimaev to steamroll.
Co-Main Event
Tony Ferguson returns to action just four months after suffering a brutal, highlight reel KO at hands (foot) of Michael Chandler. The turnaround feels far too fast for Ferguson. The knockout he suffered was not run of the mill, it was a brutal one. That places a real question on what his durability will be like in this fight, as Li Jingliang can crack.
That potential durability issue seems to be baked into the line however, as Jingliang is a -310 favorite. Both fighters like to press forward and like to brawl, and that will likely favor Jingliang. There is no conceivable way Fergusonโs durability will be at a level where it otherwise would be with time off. The stand up portions of this fight are going to be exciting, that much we know for sure.
Ferguson is a superior grappler to Jingliang, but his ability to get the fight to the mat will be the large question mark. Knowing Ferguson, it may be his willingness to do so as well. He is usually happy to throw down, and that will work against him in this matchup. While I believe Ferguson remains the overall more skilled fighter, the four fight losing streak capped by the horrific KO needs to be considered above all else. I think if betting this fight, Ferguson is the value side, but it is a fight to stay away from.
Remainder Of UFC 279 Fight Card
The remainder of the card is not bringing us any championship eliminator fights at the top of divisions, but it is bringing us some bangers. On the pay per view portion, Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez should truly deliver. As will Irene Aldana vs Macy Chiasson. The pay per view cards starts with Johnny Walker vs Ion Cutelaba, which could turn into a quick brawl with two big strikers throwing caution to the wind. The most notable fighter on the prelims is Jailton Almeida. His -715 price tag is accurate and we will see another floor finish from him.
UFC 279 Bet Sheet
For the second consecutive week, we have a card where large favorites are the predominant theme. 8 of 13 fights have a betting line of over -200. That holds especially true later in the card. Four of the five pay per view fights fall into that category. The same holds true for three of the four televised prelim fights. It is a difficult week to navigate if risk mitigation is at all a factor in the approach. I have settled on three betting picks where we will not be risking a great deal, with two of which being underdogs at a plus figure.
I stopped just short on two other plays in addition. Those two were nearly Jake Collier ITD and Melissa Martinez.
Click the links below for a full breakdown with recommended betting pick and analyses.
Irene Aldana vs Macy Chiasson
Alatangheili vs Chad Anheliger
Yohan Lainesse vs Darian Weeks
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Other UFC 279 Fight Predictions
Khamzat Chimaev via KO over Nate Diaz
Li Jingliang via KO over Tony Ferguson
Kevin Holland via KO over Daniel Rodriguez
Johnny Walker via KO over Ion Cutelaba
Jailton Almeida via submission over Anton Turkalj
Denis Tiuliulin via decision over Jamie Pickett
Jake Collier via KO over Chris Barnett
Norma Dumont via decision over Danyelle Wolf
Melissa Martinez via decision over Elise Reed