We did not have to wait long into the New Year for a fun pay per view card. UFC 270 comes our way on Saturday January 22nd. The fight card takes place at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The first fighters will make the walk at 6PM EST.
There has been a good bit of movement in terms of losing fights and replacing fights for this card. The important part is the pair of title fights remain intact and the card brings soling fight volume, with 13 fights in total.
Before diving into this week, letโs take a quick look back at last week. Our two bets went 1-1 with no sweat from the winner and no robbery on the loser. Joseph Holmes was not conditioned well enough for a clinch heavy grueling fight. He was also not able to dig deep to provide the effort needed to get the win. He ultimately lost a 29-28 decision. The Jake Collier play was far more sweat free than even I expected. He found his way to top position early on in the fight and secured a finish on the floor in the very first round.
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Almost Bets
This section is customarily reserved for breaking down the main event and/or other important fights that we do not have betting plays on. For this card, we will have a betting play on both the main event and co-main event title fights. Therefore, I will leave a couple of thoughts on fights that very nearly had a dedicated betting play on them.
Silvana Gomez-Juarez was nearly a betting play for us when the fight was scheduled for last weekโs card. She was -130 at that time. Now just a week later, she has flipped all the way to a +115 underdog. There is nothing in the news cycle that I have been able to identify for this movement. I suspect the action coming in is from those likening Vanessa Demopoulos to Loopy Godinez, who I believe is levels above Demopoulos. Godinez easily finished Gomez-Jaurez on the floor in her debut. I do not believe Demopoulos has that level of skill set for that path to victory, and I believe Gomez-Juarez has more top control time in this fight. Even still, due to the seemingly arbitrary line movement I have a fear that there is a piece of information I havenโt found. With that being the case, this fight remains in this section as opposed to dedicated betting play.
Pete Rodriguez is a sizeable underdog against fellow debutant Jack Della Maddalena. Rodriguez has something of a death touch with his strikes, and the style of Maddalena allows for exchanges. Rodriguez is coming off five consecutive first round KO wins, and a KO is completely in play for him in most spots. The +350 ITD line is an attractive one there.
The last almost betting play is Ilia Topuria ITD in his fight with Charles Jourdain. We were getting a superb value on Topuria when his scheduled opponent was Movsar Evloev. With the replacement of Jourdain, the flat betting line is going to be over -600 on Topuria by fight time. Even still, the ITD line of -200 offers us some level of opportunity. Topuria has superior power and could easily find a knock out in the standup. On the floor, he will run through Jourdain, and there is enough value to bet Topuria ITD.
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UFC 270 Bet Sheet
Onto our betting plays for this card. We will have five in total, and only one of the five bets requires laying over -110. Letโs role right into those.
Click the links below to read our bets and analyses.
Ciryl Gane vs Francis Ngannou
Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo
Rodolfo Viera vs Wellington Turman
Raoni Barcelos vs Victor Henry
Tony Gravely vs Salmon Oliveira
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Other Fight Predictions
Michel Pereira via decision over Andre Fialho
Cody Stamann via decision over Said Nurmagomedov
Ilia Topuria via submission over Charles Jourdain
Trevin Giles via decision over Michael Morales
Pete Rodriguez via KO over Jack Della Maddalena
Silvana Juarez-Gomez via decision over Vanessa Demopoulos
Genaro Valdez via KO over Matt Frevola
Kay Hansen via KO over Jasmine Jasudavicius