Miguel Baeza vs Khaos Williams Odds
Miguel Baeza -145 vs Khaos Williams
Fight is at 170 lbs and is -175 to end inside the distance.
Miguel Baeza vs Khaos Williams Betting Preview
Miguel Baeza looks to get back on track after his first UFC loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio. He had won his first four fights under the UFC banner. The task of getting back on track will come against early KO artist Khaos Williams.
When it comes to paths to victory, Baeza is the fighter that has all paths available. He is a powerful striker with his best attacks coming from his kicks. He has already won a fight via leg kicks and he will have that avenue available to him in this fight. We have already seen Williams have problems eating leg kicks in the octagon and that will be an issue for him in this fight. Particularly considering we saw a stance switch is simply not an option for him.
Williams comes out looking for a first round KO. He will need to do so very early on in the fight or Baeza will absolutely take over. Williams does have big power and has shown us it can only take one early on. Baeza will have to be particularly mindful of that power in the first round. However, once it gets past that point, Baeza should take over. Baeza is the tighter striker and he will be able to damage Williams at all three levels as the fight progresses.
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Where I think we will see Baeza truly shine is once he secures a takedown. He is not a high end wrestler but can get the fight to the floor. Once there, his BJJ game is absolutely on point. He will stick Williams to the mat and highly likely successfully work to a submission. Williams has scarier power, but this fight will likely play out much like Baeza’s fight against Takashi Sato did. Baeza is a quality striker, but when he’s pitted against other strikers without the grappling game he does, those strikers have no answer.
Whether it be standing or on the floor, Baeza will finish this fight once he gets Williams to slow a bit. Both fighters bring a +200 ITD line. Williams has that path for as long as the early power lasts. Baeza has that path for the entirety of the fight. He can get the job done with his hands, but I suspect it will be a submission on the floor or leg kicks that end this fight.
Betting Pick: Baeza ITD +200
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