Nicolau vs Elliott UFC Vegas 39 Odds
Matheus Nicolau -200 vs Tim Elliott
Fight is at 125 lbs and is +150 to end inside the distance.
Matheus Nicolau vs Tim Elliott Betting Preview
Matheus Nicolau started his second UFC stint with a win over Manel Kape, and this fight sets up even better for him. The BJJ fighter has truly become a competent striker and will have an advantage over his opponent in this fight. He is the cleaner and more powerful striker and will put out the more consistent volume. We could see Nicolau tear up the lead leg of his opponent. He is also the superior BJJ fighter, and he may have to use it in this fight. While Nicolau is not a bad wrestler, he will be at a disadvantage in that department. He will likely be taken down in this fight, but he will not be controlled. He will be able to work to sweep or simply just return to his feet. If he gets a sweep, he will be in a fantastic position. Nicolau will also have a cardio advantage and is in a spot where he has very little worry on being finished by this particular opponent.
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Tim Elliott is a difficult fighter to like or dislike, as he has an odd style all his own. He will push a wrestling pace early in many of his fights. However he is a fighter that will tire, and it become apparent in the standup. When he gasses, his hands are not even up and he just tries to rely on durability to make it through to the end. He is also not responsible in the grappling, and often gives up position attacking ill advised submission attempts. He will not be able to control Nicolau, so even if he lands some takedowns, he will simply be spending his gas tank without a real return for it. Both early on in the fight and after Elliott has spent himself on wrestling, we are going to see his lead leg hurt by Nicolau kicks and we will see him pieced up in boxing range. He may even be taken down himself later in the fight, and under Nicolau with no energy left is the last place Elliott wants to be.
This is simply a fight where Nicolau has the answers to the odd Elliott skill set. He will out strike and out grapple Elliott, and the takedowns will be an afterthought in the minds of the judges, if the fight makes it that far. The current version of Nicolau simply outclasses Elliott and the -200 flat line is attractive for a fighter whose opponent’s path to victory essentially lies exclusively on judge’s scorecards.