Maryna Moroz vs Jennifer Maia Fight Odds
Maryna Moroz -180 vs Jennifer Maia
Fight is at 125 lbs and us +240 to end inside the distance.
Maryna Moroz has seen her stock level up over the course of her current three fight winning streak. Her performance on this streak has been impressive, but it has come against fighters who are lacking in overall development. We will see how that translates to a complete fighter that has fought for a title. Prior to the winning streak, Moroz was matched up with Carla Esparza and Angela Hill and dropped 30-27 decisions to both.
Where Moroz has found success since then is with her wrestling and grappling. She has had 18 minutes of control time in those three fights. In this fight, she will have to find another path to victory. While she may be able to land a takedown or two, she will not be the physically stronger fighter and will be unable to control like she has against lesser opponents. What she will need to do is win the striking portion of the fight with volume. That creates another issue as she will perhaps be the busier striker, but not the fighter with the better striking skill set.
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Jennifer Maia, after fighting at the very top of the division for some time, has been transitioned to the role of gatekeeper. Maia has lost three of four fights, but there is no shame or issue with losses to the champ Shevchenko, Fiorot and Chookagian. Maia has faced middling fighters that are better wrestlers than strikers in the UFC before, and has flourished. She has an extremely well rounded skill set that may truly give her an edge wherever this fight takes place.
She is certainly the sharper and more powerful striker that will have technical and power edges. Her task will be matching the volume of her opponent. The wrestling is somewhat even, but Maia is the physically stronger fighter that will have much more success defending Moroz takedowns than her previous opponents did. Maia is also the better and more credentialed grappler that will have an edge on the mat, or the one that will simply return to her feet if she prefers to strike.
What To Bet
This betting line seems a bit nonsensical in that it seems to look at only recent records and not level of competition faced. It could also suggest that Maia is somehow a declining fighter, something she has not shown symptoms of. In any event, I view it as incorrect with the wrong fighter favored altogether. If Maia were to lose this fight, it would inarguably be the worst loss of her UFC tenure. It is odd the oddsmakers would make that the expectation. We are going to attack the +160 value on the underdog that enters a fight that is not overly dissimilar than that of any of her four UFC wins.
Betting Pick: Maia +160
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