Jai Herbert vs Kyle Nelson Fight Odds
Jai Herbert -280 vs Kyle Nelson
Fight is at 155 lbs and is -270 to end inside the distance.
Let me start by saying there should actually be two betting picks for this fight. We will get to the side to play momentarily, but the -270 ITD lien for the fight is far too low. Each of these fighters have seen all four of their respective UFC fights not go the distance. That outcome should completely be the expectation in this matchup as well.
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Starting with Kyle Nelson, I believe him to be at the very bottom of the roster in the lightweight division. He did notch one win thus far, but that was the last fight for Marco Polo Reyes before he was cut. I can say Nelson has adequate power, but that will be the end of the complimentary statements for Nelson. Especially compared to other UFC lightweights. Nelson will be live for that early KO in this matchup, but will likely need to land that perfect shot. He is not a high end wrestler nor grappler, and will be in for a long night if he does not catch perfect early on.
Jai Herbert draws an extremely favorable matchup here. This is a huge step down in competition for Herbert, as he has lost to truly solid fighters thus far. In just four UFC fights, Herbert has drawn Francisco Trinaldo, Renato Moicano and Ilia Topuria. Herbert truly could have gotten a finish in the Trinaldo fight, and had the misfortune of running into superior grapplers in the other two. I would be remiss to not mention he truly could have finished Topuria as well, but Topuria recovered and rallied after being hurt.
What To Bet
The only knock for Herbert in this fight is potential durability issues. We have seen him dropped and finished in two of four UFC fights, but it should be noted that was against a higher level of competition. Herbert will absolutely be the superior striker here and also matches the power of Nelson. He is the better wrestler and the better grappler. He has Nelson covered in every aspect and only needs to avoid the flash KO early on. I do not think there is any way Nelson survives a full 15 minutes with Herbert, and the -120 ITD line is a screaming value. That will be our avenue of attack.
Betting Pick: Herbert ITD -120
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