Ciryl Gane vs Francis Ngannou Fight Odds
Ciryl Gane -150 vs Francis Ngannou
Fight is five rounds at heavyweight and is -280 to end inside the distance.
Unification for the heavyweight championship.
Oh boy, here we go. This fight is a ton of fun, and is certainly the most anticipated fight on the UFC 270 card. Oftentimes we will see a fight dubbed the “people’s main event” on these cards, but this main event also fits that bill.
Before this betting line was updated upon the official fight announcement, I spent a non-minuscule amount of time having internal dialogue of where it might sit. I landed on expecting Franics Ngannou to be a favorite just shy of -200. I was not completely shocked when Ngannou was a small favorite in the -120 range. Where the true shock came was when the public backed Ciryl Gane so heavily, and bet him to a -150 favorite.
Gane’s Rise
Ciryl Gane has been extremely impressive. The man is absolutely a fantastic fighter. He is the most technically sound striker in the heavyweight division. Gane is big and athletic. He has an unsung grappling game, but it is there. He is a complete fighter, and with the run he is on, he deserves a crack at the belt. What he does not deserve to be, is favored against Ngannou.
Now, Gane has made somewhat easy work of the majority of the heavyweight division. He finally put an exclamation point on one of his performances with a KO win of Derrick Lewis in August to win the interim title. Seeing as Ngannou has not fought since March, I believe there is real recency bias in Gane being bet as a favorite.
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Don’t Forget About Frankie Murder
DO NOT SLEEP ON NGANNOU due to something of an absence. He has always had the most devastating power that we have ever seen in an octagon. What’s more, is he was by far the best version of himself that he’s ever been in his most recent fight. He will likely be an even better version in this one.
Let’s start by flashing back to 2018. He earned a title shot against Stipe Miocic. Miocic beat Ngannou mentally as much as he did physically. That was evident in the Ngannou’s next fight with Derrick Lewis, where he simply was not there mentally. Ngannou did not engage at all in that fight, and it was truly the worst fight you will ever watch. I believe it was the aftermath of that fight where Ngannou mentally was able to process the past losses, and decided it would not happen again.
His next four fights were all first round knockouts that felt unfair. The Earth shattering power was on full display, and none of his opponents were able to make it past the 71 second mark. This set up his second shot at Stipe Miocic’s title, and Ngannou brought the best version of himself. Of course he earned the KO win, but he showed the very real development to his game. He won in both offensive and defensive wrestling against Miocic leading up to the brutal knockout. Frankly, Ciryl Gane is very good, but he is human. The fact that he is human means he, like the rest of the planet, will not be able to withstand the Ngannou power.
The way the fight will play out is certainly not the way Gane will envision it. Gane is somewhat accustomed to dictating pace and pressure. He is so technically sharp that he renders opponents inactive. They become tentative to engage and Gane outpoints and out touches them by a sizable margin. He will not have that going for him against Ngannou. If there were ever a fighter that could be, should be and is willing to take one to give one, it is Ngannou. Ngannou has never been finished and has gone five rounds before. I believe he will be better conditioned than the first five round fight. However, if this fight were to make it to the championship rounds, Gane would have the cardio edge.
Gane will not be the advancing fighter at the level he needs to be, and frankly, his chin will not hold up against this version of Ngannou. No one’s will. We saw what happened to the greatest heavyweight to ever live in Ngannou’s most recent matchup.
What To Bet
The real question is boiling down to whether to take the +130 on Ngannou flat, or go to the +165 ITD line. While I fully expect a KO, I just do not see the benefit of forcing the ITD play for such a small pricing improvement. It is MMA, things happen. If Gane brings the chin and only loses the first three rounds, we would be sick not cashing a ticket on a fight Ngannou wins 48-47. That feels like a longshot, but it is within the range of outcomes, so stick with the flat play.
Betting Pick: Ngannou +130
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+