Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez Fight Odds
Brian Ortega -170 vs Yair Rodriguez
Fight is five rounds at 145 lbs and -135 to end inside the distance.
This main event is an extremely fun one at featherweight. Brian Ortega has lost two of three fights, but those were both title fights against Holloway and Volkanovski. Three consecutive finishes of Renato Moicano, Cub Swanson and Frankie Edgar earned Ortega the first title shot. The win in the middle of those was the most impressive of his career. An absolute dismantling of the Korean Zombie. After being taken apart by Holloway in the stand up, we saw Ortega’s striking level up in a big way in that fight. That earned him another title crack after a fun season of the Ultimate Fighter. His title shot against Volkanovski did not go his way, but my word was he close to a pair of submissions in that fight. Even the world class BJJ Black belt himself cannot fathom how Volkanovski survived specifically the guillotine. With the title miss, the level of competition drops back down some, with this favorable matchup against Rodriguez.
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Yair Rodriguez is a fighter that has leveled up to some degree, the question is just how much. Rodriguez earned his first main event spotlight against the Korean Zombie back in 2018. If we are honest, he was losing that fight until an inverted back elbow out of desperation landed to score him a KO with just one second remaining in that five round fight. He then went on to the tired two fight Jeremy Stephens saga for a pair of fights after a no contest in the first in 2019. After a two year layoff, Rodriguez returned to a main event against Max Holloway in 2021. While he lost the fight comfortably, he showed better than many, including myself expected. Holloway is one of three common opponents for Ortega and Rodriguez. Both lost to Holloway and both beat Korean Zombie. However Ortega knocked out Frankie Edgar while Rodriguez was finished to close the second round against Edgar.
In this matchup, we have two fighters that have seen their striking level up. Rodriguez has a small range edge but Ortega will be the stronger, more willful and more bullying fighter. I believe we will see Ortega be the advancing fighter putting Rodriguez on the back foot, where he is less effective. Ortega will have a power edge in the stand up as well, and is the fighter far more live for a KO. Ortega also has the largest advantage of any area in this fight, and this on the floor with his BJJ game. Any takedown Ortega earns makes him very live for a submission. More importantly, any takedown he earns likely sees that round end with him in top position. Even the threat of an Ortega takedown will likely make Rodriguez more hesitant throughout the fight, further accumulating the advantages for Ortega.
What To Bet
While the standup is close in this fight, the Ortega edge on the floor will be the difference. Rodriguez will have to account for any incoming takedown attempt. Conversely, Ortega will welcome takedown attempts with open arms. Ortega’s forward pressure should earn him the edge in the striking and I believe he takes at least one round with a takedown and control. The -170 on the flat is a strong value on Ortega.
Betting Pick: -170
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