Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo Fight Odds
Brandon Moreno -175 vs Deiveson Figueiredo
Fight is five rounds at 125 lbs and is -165 to end inside the distance.
For the flyweight championship.
This one is going to be a ton of fun during UFC 270. This is the third installment of Figueiredo vs Moreno. The first fight was a draw that I personally scored for Figueiredo. The second was an impressive finish for Moreno to win the belt. It marked the first time that Figueiredo had ever been finished. Not to take anything away from Moreno, but that was a very far cry from the best version of Figueiredo.
New Camp For The Former Champ
The fact that his last performance fell flat was not lost on Figueiredo. He has changed fight camps and gone to Fight Ready for this fight. Physical attributes and gifts have never been a problem for Figueiredo, but he sometimes makes questionable decisions inside the octagon. When a fighter has the power and strength Figueredo does, those hiccups often go unnoticed. That was not the case in the most recent fight and I think we will see a much more intelligent game plan. One that puts more focus on the importance of offensive and defensive wrestling. I believe we also see a better prepared and conditioned fighter going in.
Brandon Moreno has had quite the unlikely path to being champion. He was cut by the UFC in 2018. He returned in 2019 and has earned four wins and two draws in that second tenure. His well rounded skill set has served him well, and his chin has been nothing short of extraordinary. He has eaten a vast amount of heavy strikes from Figueiredo that have been fight enders against other opponents. He survived those strikes and rode his grappling game to becoming champion.
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While I think a better version of Figueiredo is essentially sure to arrive on Saturday, there are some things that will play out differently in this fight. The camp move for Figueiredo simply can’t be understated. He will have been working with Henry Cejudo on a daily basis. His wrestling game may be unrecognizable in this fight. That is to say it will have improved that much. He will no longer be reliant on his vicious guillotine.
Where Moreno landed six of ten takedown attempts in two fights, I believe the defense of those takedowns will happen at a much higher clip for Figueiredo. Where Moreno had over eight minutes of control time in the first two fights, I don’t believe we see that trend continue. Both by stuffing takedowns and having exponentially more urgency returning to his feet, Figueiredo will dictate far more when the fight hits the ground and for how long it stays there. He landed takedowns of his ownin both of the first two fights, and I think we may see more of that.
What To Bet
We have now discussed the fight plenty, but not the betting line. While I completely understand Moreno is going to be favored after the finish win the last time out, it is a bit wild that the line is stretched to -175. Moreno was certainly better on ne given night, but I do not believe he is better. With the +145 pricing on the superior athlete and former champ, we have an underdog play in the co-main event.