Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena Fight Odds
Amanda Nunes -285 vs Julianna Pena
Fight is five rounds at 135 lbs and is -280 to end inside the distance.
For the women’s bantamweight championship.
If you do not know who Amanda Nunes is, let me be the first to welcome you to the MMA world. Nunes is the greatest female combat sports athlete in history, and there is not a close second. She was a two division champ and her loss in her last fight snapped a 12 fight winning streak. Her last 10 fights have all been title fights in the bantamweight and featherweight divisions.
At 135 lbs, only Valentina Shevchenko and Germaine de Randemie were able to go the distance with her. The remainder were all finish wins. Nunes is so skilled and dangerous in all aspects of MMA. She is very crisp and powerful striker. She is quite a sound wrestler and has very high end BJJ on the mat. Nunes has an avenue to beating every opponent, which made the loss in he most recent fight all the more shocking. Pena is far from her most difficult opponent.
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Julianna Pena beat Amanda Nunes back in December to win the bantamweight championship. It was wildly shocking as Pena was just one fight removed from a submission loss to Germaine de Randemie, as de Randemie is truly a striker. Pena is a rock solid top ten banatamweight, but it is truly difficult to view her through a championship lens. Even in the first fight, Nunes was putting it on Pena in that first round. It was the second round where Pena took over, but I do not believe that was due to Pena as it was due to Nunes.
Nunes was off in a way that we had either never seen or not seen in at least eight years. It appeared her body failed and she was not mentally prepared to fight through it. Just last week on the post show after UFC London, Michael Bisping talked about Nunes fighting through lingering effects of COVID in that fight. Now I do not know if Nunes came down with the illness a second time leading up to the fight, but I do know Bisping was completely convinced it was a huge factor.
Past Parallel
I have had Matt Serra on my mind this week, as I see a parallel between his pair of fights with Georges St Pierre. Serra won the belt off St Pierre but was completely expected to drop it back in the rematch, which did in fact come to fruition. I feel like Nunes is in the GSP role while Pena is in the Serra role. Nunes will have received any wake up call needed and will showcase that she remains the best female MMA fighter alive.
What To Bet
Nunes will likely keep this fight upright and put it on Pena in the standup. The fun thing about Nunes notching a loss is that we get a betting line in playable territory now. Her previous fights lines were all so large, they could not even be considered. The -285 flat line is playable, but I think we get a statement finish from Nunes. The -125 ITD line will be our avenue of attack on the once and future queen.
Betting Pick: Nunes ITD -125
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