You don’t really see Max Scherzer as a dog of this size, but the Padres are swinging the bats well and have Yu Darvish on the mound, so I guess it seems justified. We’ve even seen money come in on the Padres, so that would seem to say a lot. I don’t know how you can bet against Scherzer with what he’s done recently, but it is happening.
Scherzer is on a two-month run of posting a 1.68 ERA over 64.1 innings with a sick set of peripherals. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his last 11 starts and he’s only allowed two runs in three of them. In that span, he has allowed seven home runs and 12 runs total, so he’s done a phenomenal job of stranding runners and just altogether limiting baserunners.
Scherzer has allowed just 37 hits and walked 15 batters. He’s on a really big heater for the Nationals and Washington is a team that futures players are starting to take an interest in for the NL East. The Mets do look rather vulnerable, even as they get healthier.
I think it is kind of unbelievable to have a run of 11 straight starts with two earned runs or fewer and see money come against a guy like that. It speaks to a couple of factors. The first is that the Padres offense is finally living up to its contact quality by being second in wOBA over the last two weeks. I’m not sure how much bullpen strength is factored into a number, but the Padres do have the better bullpen between these two teams.
I think those two factors are contributing to this line move. And I can appreciate those two things, but I also think it’s important to look at the recent returns for Darvish.
Darvish has a 4.02 ERA with a 3.97 FIP in his last seven starts. Still very good, but not Darvishian. He’s given up seven home runs in that span and has had three straight starts with an average exit velocity over 92 mph. Darvish is a guy under the microscope a little bit with the substance crackdown because he has had some big spin rate increases over the last three seasons.
Is this related to that? I guess it could be.
Everything is down across the board for Darvish. Most notably, the cutter”
The reality here is that Darvish still grades out with well above average spin rates and probably borderline elite relative to the new averages that we’re going to see around the league. With that being said, he still has to adjust to his pitches doing different things. His baseline will change a little bit because his stuff may not be as dominant with the spin rate decrease.
I think that is what we are seeing now. I look at Darvish and I see a guy trying to adjust to his new normal. It took him a little bit of time to adhere to MLB’s memo and he seemed to basically wait until the umpires started checking to really pay attention to it.
All of that being said, I don’t want to butt heads with the Padres pen, but I will take Scherzer and the Nationals for the 1st 5. Scherzer is thriving and has allowed just three runs in 17 innings since coming off the IL with 23 K against six walks. Darvish, meanwhile, seems to be going in the opposite direction.
Pick: Washington Nationals 1st 5
Other games: Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs; Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians