The Texas Rangers are winless in the second half of the season and their losing streak reached 10 with last nightโs 7-3 loss. The Astros jumped out ahead early and coasted to the lopsided victory to win as a sizable favorite. This is officially now the longest losing streak of the season for the Rangers, who dropped nine in a row from May 25 to June 3 to get swept in all three series of a road trip.
In other words, things are not going well for the boys from Arlington. They have scored 13 runs in eight games since the Break and have only scored 57 runs in 18 July games.
The task at hand doesnโt seem to get any easier today with a matchup against Astros left-hander Framber Valdez. Valdez goes into this start with a 3.26 ERA and a 4.25 FIP in his 60.2 innings of work. The southpaw got a late start to the season on May 28 after fracturing his pitching hand trying to field a comebacker in Spring Training.
Valdez has a stunningly high GB% of 70.5%, which makes it even harder to believe that he has allowed seven homers on the season. His HR/FB% of 25.9% is really out there and is the reason why his 3.54 xFIP is so much lower than his 4.25 FIP. Valdez has struggled a little bit here of late, allowing 13 runs on 23 hits over his last 15.1 innings of work, but he faced the White Sox, Yankees, and Aโs. The Rangers are certainly not in that stratosphere.
The Rangers have the second-fewest plate appearances with a runner in scoring positioning. This is just a bad offense. The Texas offense ranks 29th in wOBA overall. The Rangers are fourth in GB%, so their offensive style plays right into what Valdez is looking to do. To add more fuel to this fire, the Rangers are 28th in wOBA against left-handed pitching with the lowest BB% in baseball at 6.4%.
The tl;dr version of all of that is to say that the Rangers do not have a high offensive projection for me whatsoever in this game.
The Astros will take their swings against Kyle Gibson tonight. The narrative gaining steam in baseball circles with Gibby is that he has submarined all of his trade value after his last two starts. He has allowed 13 runs on 18 hits in 11.1 innings. He didnโt pitch well in either start, but he was pushed into the seventh in that first start against the Tigers on July 7 and left with the bases loaded. Reliever Joely Rodriguez allowed all three runs to score.
In his most recent start, Gibson just clearly didnโt have it, but was also pitching on 11 days rest. As more of a ground ball guy, youโd rather not go that long. Iโll never forget Indians starter Jake Westbrook, a longtime sinkerball guy, saying that he preferred to pitch a little tired because it gave his sinker more time to move on the way to the plate. If he was throwing it too hard because of additional rest, it would flatten out a bit.
Gibsonโs 91.1 mph exit velo in his last start was his fourth highest of the season in 18 starts. Iโm not saying we can draw a line through that one, but Gibson went from April 7 to July 2 without allowing more than three runs in a start and he only did that once. I have to think he finds a way to be better today, even against the Astros. Heโs had a strong season overall. While there were some regression signs in the profile, I still think he can right the ship here.
With a ton of ground balls coming up in this game, Iโm looking at the total of 8 and looking to play on the under.
Pick: Under 8
Other game: Oakland Aโs at Seattle Mariners