The Texas Rangers took a lot of money at home last week in their series against the Oakland Athletics. It will be interesting to follow the betting markets and see what happens this time around as the A’s are the host squad and the Rangers are out on the road.
While not Colorado bad, the Rangers are definitely close to Arizona’s level away from home with a 10-27 record. They’ve been outscored by 48 runs in their 37 home games and are also having a really rough month of June with an 8-15 record.
I really don’t understand what bettors saw in the Rangers last week, though it did work out in the Kansas City series, as Texas heads west with a three-game winning streak in tow. It is actually tied with their longest winning streak of the season. They have five losing streaks of at least four games, but have not yet had a winning streak of that length.
I’m hoping that they don’t have one here today because I’ll be on the Oakland A’s and be on the A’s with the run line in this one.
The reason why is because I’ve been eagerly awaiting opportunities to fade Mike Foltynewicz on the road. Folty has been bad enough as it is with a 5.40 ERA and a 5.53 FIP in his 80 innings of work across 15 starts. He’s only struck out 56 batters. He has only walked 19, but he has allowed 93 hits in his 80 innings and 18 of them have been home runs. It is really hard to run a HR/9 over 2.0 and still have a BABIP over .300, but Foltynewicz has done it.
The thing that makes the numbers even worse for Foltynewicz is that he has thrown 55.2 of those 80 innings at home. While Globe Life Field has been a quirky ballpark since the foreign substance crackdown, it isn’t the best of hitting environments. The ballpark has averaged 8.2 runs per game this season and even a bad Rangers pitching staff has held the opposition to 4.2 runs per game.
In a forgiving environment, Foltynewicz has allowed a .479 SLG and a .341 wOBA. He has only made a handful of road starts, but has allowed a .438 wOBA and has a 7.40 ERA in 24.1 innings away from home. Those starts have been against Colorado, Houston, the Angels, the Dodgers, and the Mariners. Oakland isn’t on the level of the Astros, Angels, or Dodgers, but still ranks 11th in wOBA and has a 105 wRC+.
I’m curious to see which way this line moves because James Kaprielian has a 2.86 ERA with a 4.26 FIP in his 44 innings. He has a .226 BABIP and an 86.9% LOB%, so if nothing else, I’m guessing the market bumps this total up a little bit. Kaprielian is a guy that tilts to the fly ball side and should be able to have more success in a place like Oakland Coliseum as a result with the marine air and the spacious outfield.
In a small sample size of 13 innings, Kaprielian has allowed a .171 wOBA at home, though those starts were against the Royals and Mariners. Of course, Texas’s lineup ranks 23rd in wOBA, so not a whole lot better than the Mariners and worse than the Royals. The Rangers rank 20th in road WOBA, so it’s not like they’ve done well there either.
Ultimately, this is playing an angle that I’ve been looking to play as the season has gone along. Foltynewicz just isn’t a trustworthy starting pitcher overall and I think this is a challenge for him, going out on the road to take on an Oakland lineup that certainly has enough power to punish pitchers with poor command. This will also be Oakland’s second look at him in a week.
I’ll be on the Oakland run line here.
Pick: Oakland Athletics Run Line
Other games: Padres at Reds; Diamondbacks at Cardinals; Rays at Nationals