The Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals continue their three-game series Tuesday night, so I’ve prepared the best MLB betting pick and odds for the middle contest of this National League showdown at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
The Nationals opened as -150 home favorites for Tuesday’s clash, while the Pirates are +140 moneyline dogs with a total of 8.5 runs on William Hill Sportsbook. Washington was a slight -120 fave for Monday’s opener that I’ve excluded from this analysis.
The Pirates got swept in two straight sets
The Pittsburgh Pirates entered the Nationals series riding a seven-game losing streak. They got swept by the Dodgers and Brewers in a couple of three-game series, falling to 23-41 on the season. The Pirates are the worst team in the National League Central by far, trailing eight and a half games behind the fourth-placed Cardinals.
The Bucs own the lowest-scoring offense in the majors, tallying just 3.48 runs per game. Over the last two weeks, they’ve recorded a .658 OPS (26th in the MLB) and a 5.26 ERA (21st), so it’s no strange that Pittsburgh has been awful as of late.
Tyler Anderson will get the ball Tuesday, and the 31-year-old lefty is 3-6 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Anderson is 0-3 in his last five outings, allowing 20 earned runs in that stretch. He’s 1-0 with a 4.29 ERA in four career starts against the Nationals.
The Nationals sit bottom of the NL East
The Washington Nationals are having a rather disappointing season. They were 27-35 on Monday, sitting bottom of the NL East, half a game behind the Marlins and seven and a half games behind the top-seeded Mets.
The Nats have won six of their last 12 games overall, scoring two or fewer runs seven times in the process. Over the last two weeks, they’ve recorded a .661 OPS (25th in the MLB) and a 3.16 ERA (4th). The Nationals score only 3.76 runs per game this season (28th).
Patrick Corbin will toe the slab Tuesday, and the 31-year-old southpaw has been awful so far this season. He sports a 6.21 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 48/26 K/BB ratio across 62.1 innings of work to go with a 3-5 record in 12 starts. Corbin is 2-2 with a 3.53 ERA in eight career starts against the Pirates.
Trends:
Pittsburgh:
- 5-15 in the last 20 games overall
- 2-13 in the last 15 contests on the road
Washington:
- 15-5 in the last 20 home games against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Pick:
Patrick Corbin has allowed three or more runs in each of his last five starts, and the Nationals desperately need from him. This is a nice opportunity for Corbin to bounce back, considering Pittsburgh’s toothless offense.
The current Pirates are batting only .183 against Corbin. Also, they are slashing just .213/.291/.347 against the left-handers this season. On the other side, the Nationals have been solid against the southpaws so far this term, slashing .260/.342/.413. I’m expecting the Nats’ offense to finally get things going and make all the difference in this game.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Total Pick:
The Pirates’ relievers have recorded the fifth-lowest ERA in baseball over the last two weeks (3.04). On the other side, the Nats bullpen has recorded a 4.22 ERA in that span (16th in the majors). If both teams continue to struggle at the plate, this game will go in the under, but I don’t feel comfortable with the totals.
The Nationals’ offense is undoubtedly one of the biggest disappointments of the season. They have so much firepower on their lineup and could explode anytime soon.