The Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up their four-game series on Sunday afternoon, so I’ve prepared the best betting pick and odds for this American League showdown at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
The Pirates have won the first two games of the series, 5-3 and 9-2, but they are +129 moneyline dogs for Sunday’s clash, as the Marlins will send their top ace to the mound. Miami is a -139 fave with a total of 8.0 runs on William Hill Sportsbook.
The Marlins are desperate to break out of their slump
The Miami Marlins fell to 24-32 on the season following a heavy 9-2 loss to the Pirates on Friday night. It was their seventh defeat on the spin, and the Marlins dropped to the bottom of the American League East standings, trailing six games behind the leaders, the New York Mets.
During that seven-game skid, the Marlins have scored only 16 runs in total. They are tallying 3.79 runs per game this season (25th in the majors) on a .229/.298/.363 slash line. Over the last 15 days, the Marlins have recorded the second-worst OPS of .628 while batting just .218.
Miami’s pitching staff owns the eighth-lowest ERA in baseball (3.62). Sandy Alcantara will toe the slab Sunday, and the 25-year-old right-hander is only 2-5 in 12 starts this season. Alcantara sports a solid 3.68 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 68/20 K/BB ratio across 71 frames of work.
The Pirates finally provided some fireworks at the plate
The Pittsburgh Pirates own the lowest-scoring offense in the majors, averaging only 3.52 runs per game. They are tied-19th in batting average (.231) and 22nd in on-base percentage, but the Pirates have the worst slugging percentage in the MLB this season (.353).
Pittsburgh has improved offensively over their last seven outings, scoring 36 runs in the process. The Pirates had 12 hits in Friday’s 9-2 win over Miami after recording just seven in a 5-3 victory to the Marlins in the opener.
Pittsburgh’s pitching staff sports a 4.74 ERA (24th in the MLB) and a 1.34 WHIP (19th). Chad Kuhl will take the mound Sunday, and he’s 0-2 with a poor 6.41 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in five starts this term. The 28-year-old righty allowed 16 free passes across 19.2 frames while striking out 19.
Trends:
Miami:
- 8-4 in Sandy Alcantara’s last 12 starts on the road
Pittsburgh:
- 5-12 in the last 17 games overall
In his three no-decision outings against Pittsburgh, Sandy Alcantara posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 14 innings of work. The current Pirates are batting .371 against him, so Alcantara will have to bring his best game to PNC Park. Sandy hasn’t been at his best lately, recording three losses in his previous four starts, so I’m expecting a bounce-back performance from the Marlins’ ace.
On the other side, Chad Kuhl is 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA in three career starts against Miami. He’s allowed three or more earned runs in each of his last four starts this term, so I think the Marlins have a nice opportunity to finally break out of their funk.
Pick: Take Miami Marlins at -139
The Total:
Both Miami and Pittsburgh are struggling mightily on the offensive end. The Pirates have shown some improvement as of late, but they’ll have another tough day in the office if Sandy Alcantara puts on a strong performance.
I’m backing the under, looking for both offenses to struggle a bit. The under is 10-5 in the Marlins’ last 15 games excluding the third contest of this series, and it is 8-5 in the Pirates’ previous 13 outings at home.
Pick: Go under 8.0 runs at -115