Iโm a little bit surprised that I actually have a play that I like in the marquee game between the Dodgers and Nationals today, but I do and it takes into account an angle that we all need to try and keep in mind as we move forward.
The Dodgers won yesterdayโs rain-shortened affair by a 6-2 count, as they got after Patrick Corbin. There was a starting pitcher change, so hopefully you were on top of that and re-fired if you had faded Corbin. Also, make sure to always have the Listed Pitchers option selected when you lock in a bet. Going from Gonsolin to Gonzalez didnโt move the line, but if you have Action selected, then you could really get put into a bind by having a bad number with a pitcher you didnโt even handicap.
In any event, today is a new day and weโve got Julio Urias up against Max Scherzer in the best pitcherโs duel of the night. Weโll see what kind of pitcherโs duel we actually end up getting with a total of 8, but the ball has been flying out of Nationals Park lately with the warm weather. Scoring has also been up league-wide, as we all know.
It will ruin the surprise as I start talking about this angle, but it is definitely something that I am committing to memory here for the remainder of the season. A lot of pitchers have already made IL appearances this year and I expect that number to keep going up. With the substance crackdown, Iโm sure weโll see more elbow problems, blisters, etc., but to me, I think fatigue will be one of the biggest factors going forward.
Take Julio Urias for example. The 24-year-old made his MLB debut back at the young age of 19. The Dodgers have always treated him like a kid and a prized possession. Well, this season, Urias has a good set of numbers with a 3.95 ERA and a 3.49 FIP, but what Iโm looking at is that he has already made 16 starts.
That is a career-high for Urias. He made 15 back in his debut season in 2016, but he only threw 77 innings. Heโs already thrown 93.1 innings this season. The only time he eclipsed that number was back in 2016 when he had 122 innings between Triple-A and MLB. So, I have some long-term concerns about Urias and also some concerns and red flags based on what weโve seen lately.
Urias has allowed 22 runs over his last 31 innings. The left-hander has given up a home run in all six of those starts. He still has 37 strikeouts in that span, so the quality of his stuff still seems to be there, but weโre talking about a guy that has extremely low exit velocity and Hard Hit% marks for his career. In that span, his Hard Hit% is up to 35.2% and his average exit velocity is 88.4 mph.
Compare that to his first 10 starts with a Hard Hit% of 30.4% and an average exit velo of 86.4 mph. Yes, quality of opponent does come into play in any sample size, but Urias simply isnโt commanding the baseball as well as he was earlier in the season.
The Nationals are a solid offense against lefties. They rank sixth in batting average and eighth in wOBA. Itโs been the better of the two splits for them to be sure.
I donโt have many concerns about Max Scherzer here. The quality of opponent is high, but so is the caliber of pitcher. Scherzer has a 2.14 ERA with a really high LOB%, but he also has a high strikeout rate and some really good command, so he can certainly overachieve in that department. His control is also a big, important weapon against a lineup like the Dodgers that generates a lot of offensive chances by drawing walks. He has almost a 6/1 K/BB ratio out of 339 batters faced.
The veteran right-hander has cut down on the mild home run issue he had earlier in the season. He has only allowed four home runs in his last eight starts compared to eight in his first seven starts, so that is a positive sign. Heโs just a really solid, really consistent, Hall of Fame pitcher.
So I think the Nationals have some big advantages in this game. I like their offensive projection more against Urias. I like Scherzer over Urias. The bullpen, while pretty mediocre, is at least mostly rested. Itโll be Washington for me today.
Pick: Washington Nationals
Other game: Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians