The Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians are both in prolonged periods of poor baseball. The Royals actually led the AL Central Division on May 5. Two months and two days later, they are 15 games out in the division. The Indians are 0-7 in July and have lost nine in a row. They are now eight games out in the division as they head home at .500.
This four-game series with the Royals represents a break for the Indians, who just done got done getting their heads caved in by Tampa Bay and Houston. The Indians lost a doubleheader to the Tigers on June 30, but Detroit has actually been playing pretty well for quite a while now.
I talked a lot about my pessimistic outlook for the Indians with the degree of difficulty ramping up on the schedule. Well, that came to fruition. Fortunately, they host the Royals now prior to the All-Star Break, a team actually worse than they are.
In looking at this game, I disagree with the line move that we’ve seen to this point. The Indians opened in the mid-140s with Zach Plesac making his return from the IL. Danny Duffy is getting the start for the Royals.
Plesac will be around 60 pitches. Here’s the thing, though. Duffy has thrown 62 and 69 pitches in his last two starts, so I’d put him somewhere in the realm of 75 in this start. He was on the IL from May 12 to June 23 and just recently got stretched out to 60 pitches. He threw 42 and then 15 in his first two appearances.
That means that the bullpens are going to decide this one. The Indians bullpen ranks eighth in fWAR. The Royals bullpen ranks 27th. The Indians are fifth in ERA. The Royals are 21st. The Indians are sixth in FIP. The Royals are 26th.
Do I expect the Indians to do a bunch of damage against Danny Duffy? No. Not really. And Duffman has been great this season with a 2.60 ERA and a 3.27 FIP. Good for him. He’s been through a lot and has had some tough seasons lately.
Plesac allowed four runs on five hits in 4.2 innings in Double-A over two rehab starts, so I’m not sure how he’ll look tonight, but what I do know is that the Royals lineup is not that much better than Cleveland’s, especially when we take into account the differences between the two bullpens. The only difference between the two offenses is that Kansas City is 25 points higher in BABIP.
Having lost nine in a row, the Indians will pull out all of the stops if they are in a position to win tonight. We could see multiple innings from James Karinchak or Emmanuel Clase. I think we see a really aggressively-managed game.
With how much of a role the bullpens will play here, I’m on the Indians. They’re stepping down in class and they’ve done well in this role against bad teams. They are 27-17 against teams with losing records. I think they make a stand tonight to avoid being a team with a losing record.
Pick: Cleveland Indians
Other games: Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs; Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres