The Houston Astros seem hellbent on making up for the games that they lost in huge favorite roles to the Baltimore Orioles last week, don’t they? They’re scoring tons of runs right now and have covered the run line in back-to-back games against the Indians to open up this four-game set at Progressive Field. They are a big favorite again on Saturday, though not quite as big of a favorite as we’ve seen in the first two games of the series.
That is because Jake Odorizzi has a lower baseline projection than Framber Valdez or Lance McCullers Jr. Odorizzi has been limited to eight starts and a four-inning relief appearance on the season. He has a 4.08 ERA with a 3.70 FIP across his 35.1 innings of work. He’s actually been really good, all things considered. He struggled out of the gate in April and then hit the IL for a bit Since that time, he’s been quite effective.
He hasn’t allowed a run in his last 14 innings and has a 2.30 ERA with a 2.90 FIP in his last 27.1 innings since coming off of the IL. He should have another favorable matchup here against an Indians lineup that simply hasn’t been very good. Cleveland did strand 15 runners on Friday and had a ton of chances to make that game have a different outcome, but didn’t. Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
I do think you can knock Odorizzi a bit because his last three opponents have been Texas, Detroit, and Baltimore, but you can’t knock Odorizzi a lot because those are roommates for the Indians in terms of season-long offensive numbers. The Cleveland offense stinks and that’s really all there is to it.
The Houston offense does not, as we all know. They lead the league in a bunch of offensive categories and have been on another level recently. Over the last 30 days, Houston’s wOBA is TWENTY-ONE POINTS HIGHER THAN ANYBODY ELSE. Their wRC+ of 143 is reminiscent of that kid you hated in high school or college because he or she set the bar too high for the rest of us to enjoy the curve. The Astros have scored 170 runs in the last 30 days.
They’re just playing a different game than everybody else and now get to face Eli Morgan, who has allowed 17 runs in 16.1 innings to start his MLB career. The Indians do truly have a really good bullpen and they’re going to have to start using some of these guys to pitch with deficits simply to stay sharp and get some work in. You can’t really maximize a good bullpen if you are trailing.
The Indians look to be trailing a lot in this game yet again. They had all those chances on Friday night that they squandered, so maybe that has influenced a little bit of the money on Cleveland in this game. Maybe the Astros have just been priced cheaply in this series after losing three games as a -300 favorite against the Orioles. I don’t know.
What I do know is that the Indians are not a good baseball team and the chickens have come home to roost on this smoke and mirrors act and it is causing me to use a bunch of cliches, colloquialisms, and expressions. Water is finding its level. So on and so forth.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Sure, maybe the Astros don’t cover the run line. Maybe they don’t win in big fashion. I see no reason why they can’t. Morgan is not an MLB-caliber pitcher and the Indians don’t really have an MLB-caliber offense. The team’s best attribute and lone strength over Houston will likely sit dormant again because the Indians won’t have a lead to play with.
I’m on the Houston run line again. I think they keep this rig rolling.
Pick: Houston Astros Run Line
Other games: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds; Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays