We’ve got a really interesting game and line here for the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers. It will be Jose Urena for the Motowners and Dane Dunning for the host Texans in this game down at Globe Life Field.
The Tigers cashed a big underdog ticket yesterday in a matchup between Wily Peralta and Kolby Allard. Allard had actually been pitching really well this season and was deserving of that line in the -150 range, but the Tigers came away with a 7-3 decision, in a game that was 7-0 going to the bottom of the ninth.
The Tigers have really impressed me a lot this season and it is amazing what a culture change in the dugout can do. AJ Hinch was the best offseason managerial hire and he has really embraced the challenges of this job. Detroit started the season 9-24, but has gone 30-22 since over the last 52 games. It has been a thoroughly impressive turnaround.
As far as today’s game, don’t get me wrong, I do not like Jose Urena at all and do like Dane Dunning a fair amount, but that is a huge line and a huge favorite role for a Rangers team that just is not any good. It wouldn’t make for great content to talk about this game in deep detail because all I can really say is that Texas does not feel the least bit deserving of a favorite role this big, but I am tempted to take a look at the Tigers today.
The line has even gone up a little bit, a pretty telling indicator of how many people in the market dislike Urena. I know I do with his spin rate decreases and no command. I can’t really say a positive thing about Urena, so it seems counterintuitive with the bet that I’m going to suggest here, but I’ll have to do what I can to focus on the positives.
Dunning has been treated with kid gloves by the Rangers. He’s really only throwing around four or five innings per start. A lot of teams that aren’t going anywhere will protect their young arms this season to limit exposure after the shortened 60-game season last year. That makes a lot of sense.
I like a lot of what Dunning has done with the high strikeout rate and the extreme ground ball rate, but he also has a .373 BABIP against. He’s running a 4.38 ERA with a 3.29 FIP. That isn’t all his fault, as bad luck and some below average defense have hurt him, but he does have a 44.4% Hard Hit% on the year, so he has allowed a lot of hard contact.
He has a 12.6% BB% with the bases empty, so he’s given teams opportunities to set up innings. Basically, what I’m saying here is that I think the Tigers can compete and keep this game close enough while Urena and Dunning are out there. That could give me more of a toss-up scenario with a big underdog like Detroit.
Ultimately, the Rangers just aren’t deserving of this kind of line against any team, let alone a team playing as well as the Tigers are. Detroit has been really competent and, frankly, could end up finishing second in the AL Central. Sometimes you have to look beyond the starting pitcher when considering a bet. This is one of those cases. This line is simply too high for a terrible Rangers team.
Pick: Detroit Tigers
Other games: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks; St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants