The Chicago Cubs have channeled their inner Tom Petty and are free, free fallinโ down the standings in the NL Central right now. I felt like Chicago was in a bad place earlier in the week taking on Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, and then what was supposed to be Corbin Burnes but wound up being Aaron Ashby. They crushed Ashby and then got blown out anyway.
All of the sudden, the Cubs are treading water at 42-40, have a negative run differential, and trail by 7.5 games in the division. I guess this shouldnโt really surprise anybody. Chicagoโs offense has been bad for quite some time and I did expect a good bit of regression from the bullpen. The team had a LOB% up in the 80-81% range for a while. As we head into play on Saturday, that number sits at 78.3%.
So, it has sort of been a perfect storm for the Cubs. Over the last 14 days, the bullpen has a 57.3% LOB%. A lot of bullpens have been wearing it a little bit with the substance crackdown, as I know relievers have to have been doing whatever they could to get competitive advantages for those high-leverage situations.
But, it hasnโt been just the bullpen. The Cubs offense, which was a league average or slightly above group for a while, now sits 19th in wOBA and only has a 93 wRC+. Over the last 30 days, the Cubs have a .270 wOBA. That ranks 10 points lower than any other offense in baseball in that span and weโve certainly seen some bad ones.
Offense has spiked for a lot of teams of late, but not the Cubs. Iโm not entirely sure what the reason is. They hit for power, but donโt have men on base when those home runs get hit. An increased K% up to 29.9% has been a big culprit recently.
That seems to be a good sign for Reds starter Tyler Mahle, who has 105 strikeouts in 84.1 innings of work. The right-hander was a big spin rate increaser, leading to a lot of suspicion, especially in light of the recent crackdown. Well, Mahleโs spin rates have dropped a little bit and his performance has faltered a little bit as well, but there may be some sample size noise in there, too.
Mahle has a 4.34 ERA over his last five starts, but his 3.37 FIP looks good and his contact metrics look pretty similar to where they were. Heโs actually added strikeouts since MLB started cracking down, so the stuff really doesnโt seem to be the problem. With a Cubs lineup that projects to strike out a lot, he has a good chance at performing well here.
The Cubs starting staff has gotten a little bit better lately with Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies showing some improved numbers, but Adbert Alzolay is going in the wrong direction. Heโs allowed 13 runs in his last 10.2 innings of work and now has a 4.55 ERA with a 4.90 FIP. He has allowed 14 homers in 13 starts and has actually been living on a BABIP that was a little bit too low based on his contact quality metrics.
You could say that his last start came against the Dodgers and thatโs why his recent returns have been bad, but he also faced the Indians and the Padres before their bats really got going, so that argument seems to carry little weight. Also, the Reds are clearly a top-five offense and are one of the best home offenses in baseball.
I donโt know if the Reds live up to their offensive potential and make a push in the NL Central to try and run down an overachieving Brewers team, but what I do know is that these two teams appear to be going in very opposite directions.
The Cubs have several disgruntled impending free agents. Right now, it looks like the only playoff path in the NLC is to win the division. I think a lot of guys want out and some will want out at the Trade Deadline. Iโm just not sure that this is a good situation in Chicago, especially as the adversity mounts. Now that the good fortune of the bullpen has turned and the offense has fallen off the face of the earth, I could make a case that this is what weโll see from the Cubs going forward and itโs not a good look.
Hopefully the Reds are a good look today because weโll be on them.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds
Other games: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays; Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Indians