The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays opened a four-game series at Sahlen Field in Buffalo on Thursday night, so here’s the best O’s vs. Blue Jays betting pick for the second clash Friday, June 25, along with the latest odds update and betting trends.
These two American League East foes meet for the second time in 2021, and Toronto opened as a -190 fave for Thursday’s opener that I’m excluding from the analysis. The Blue Jays are firm favorites for the second game of this series, too, while the totals sit at 11.0 runs on PointsBet Sportsbook.
The Orioles hit the road hoping to finally snap their skid
The 23-51 Baltimore Orioles entered the Blue Jays series riding a ridiculous 19-game losing streak away from home. They also dropped 13 of their last 14 games overall including a couple of heavy defeats to the Astros at home in their previous set.
Baltimore got hammered by the Astros this past Wednesday, 13-0. The Orioles are now yielding a whopping 5.39 runs per contest (29th in the majors), and over the last two weeks, their pitching staff has recorded a terrible 6.87 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.
Matt Harvey will get the starting nod Friday, his 16th of the season and second against the Blue Jays this term. Last Sunday, the 32-year-old was charged for a loss in the Orioles’ 7-4 defeat to Toronto. He allowed four earned runs on nine hits and a couple of walks while striking out four through 4.1 frames of work.
Harvey is 3-9 on the season, sporting an awful 7.80 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and 53/22 K/BB ratio across 62.1 innings.
The Blue Jays have to stay on the winning path
The competition in the AL East is pretty stiff, so the 37-35 Toronto Blue Jays were only the fourth-best team in their division at the start of the Orioles series at home. The Blue Jays beat the O’s in the last week’s three-game set on the road, 2-1, and they’ve just swept a two-game road series against the Marlins.
Toronto continues to lean on its offense, tallying 4.94 runs per game (6th in the majors). The Blue Jays have recorded a .805 OPS over the last two weeks (tied-7th) while batting .275 (3rd), as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to lead the majors in home runs (23) and RBI (60).
Rookie Alek Manoah will take the hill Friday, and he’s 1-0 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five starts this season. The 23-year-old righty sports a nice 27/9 K/BB ratio across 23.2 innings of work, though he’s had a couple of rough outings.
Manoah tossed 3.1 innings in a 10-7 win at Baltimore this past Saturday. He yielded five earned runs (four dingers) while punching out six.
Trends:
Baltimore:
- 1-19 in the last 20 games on the road
- 4-15 in the last 19 games against Toronto
- 1-8 in Matt Harvey’s last nine starts
Toronto:
- 4-1 in the last five games overall
- 6-2 in the last eight home games against Baltimore
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pick:
Matt Harvey has been a disaster so far this season. He’s been charged for a loss in eight of his last nine starts, so I’m expecting another tough day in the office when he faces off against one of the best offensive teams in the majors.
Furthermore, the Orioles bullpen’s a mess, posting a 5.81 ERA and yielding 1.56 homers per nine innings in June. Therefore, my best MLB betting pick for Friday night is Toronto to win straight up. If you want greater wages, take the Blue Jays to cover. Seven of Toronto’s last eight victories came by two or more runs.
Pick: Take Toronto Blue Jays at -200
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Total:
Even with the sky-high line, I’m going with the over, though Toronto remains my best pick. The Orioles tortured Alek Manoah last Saturday, and the Blue Jays did the same with Matt Harvey on Sunday.
I’ve mentioned Baltimore’s pitching woes, and the Blue Jays’ relievers have recorded the seventh-highest ERA in baseball this month (5.03). Five of the last eight encounters between Baltimore and Toronto produced at least 11 runs in total.
Pick: Go over 11.0 runs at -110