There are instances in the betting business when you just mutter to yourself, “I have to do it”. You know those moments. Betting that awful NFL team catching a few too many points. Locking in that wager on the huge college football underdog, like Akron, Bowling Green, or UMass and hoping that they can simply hang on.
I’ve got myself one of those here on Tuesday between the Diamondbacks and the Cardinals. It will be Caleb Smith for Arizona and Carlos Martinez for St. Louis after a 7-1 Redbirds win on Monday night. That was a big effort for the Cardinals, who have been the worst offense in baseball by wOBA since May 18. The Cardinals have been the worst non-Rockies offense by wRC+ since May 19 and wRC+ is very harsh towards the Rockies because of Coors Field.
During this recent run of awful play, the Cardinals have had losing streaks of five and six games. They actually led the NL Central on May 30 by a half game. They’re eight games back heading into action on Tuesday. Since June 1, the Cardinals are 7-16. It has been a really rough stretch for them.
The Cardinals are an overachiever this season as well. They’ve been beaten 17 times by five or more runs and only have 10 such wins. As a result, their Pythagorean Win-Loss suggests that they are four games better than they should be, though BaseRuns is a little nicer about it.
Either way, this is not a good baseball team. To be fair, neither are the Cardinals and it sure seems like Torey Lovullo is mailing in this season. With the bases loaded in the sixth last night, Lovullo let Alex Young bat for himself against John Gant, who was throwing in the upper 90s. It was a 1-1 game. Young struck out looking. He would then allow six runs in the seventh inning.
I don’t know if Arizona is actively tanking. If Lovullo, in the last year of his contract, is giving some sort of middle finger to the organization. I don’t know. I really don’t.
What I do know is that the line is too high for Tuesday’s game. Caleb Smith has a 3.03 ERA with a 3.97 FIP over 59.1 innings of work. He’s making his sixth straight start and has allowed just eight runs on 16 hits in that span. He’s struck out 27 and walked 14. The walks are a mild concern, as the Cardinals don’t really walk a lot. They don’t strike out much either. They’re a fairly aggressive lineup, but that is fine by me because Smith has a 33.8% Hard Hit% this season, a 35.3% for his career, and a career .216 batting average against with a .258 BABIP. He’s a tough guy to hit.
You know who isn’t a tough guy to hit? Carlos Martinez. Martinez has a 6.78 ERA this season with a 4.82 FIP. It has only gotten worse for him lately. The Cardinals are stuck between a rock, a hard place, and it looks like those Tomb Raider-esque spikes are closing in on them. Gant has been moved to the bullpen. Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, and Daniel Ponce de Leon are out. Dakota Hudson had Tommy John surgery late last year. Hell, they just signed Wade LeBlanc as rotation help.
Martinez should be on the IL or something. He has allowed 30 runs on 31 hits over his last five starts. The command and the control look completely shot. There is always the chance that Arizona is the elixir for Martinez, but it would take a much different start than what he has put forth to give the Cardinals anything of value in this game.
The Diamondbacks have lost 41 straight games when scoring four or fewer runs, but I think they should get over that hump on Tuesday, so I think it’s worth taking a chance with them here. Smith has a much higher projection than Martinez.
In essence, I just don’t think St. Louis deserves this price. I don’t think Martinez deserves this price.
I’ll take a shot with the underdog D-Backs here, who did actually win a road game on Saturday.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks
Other games: Padres at Reds; Rangers at Athletics; Rays at Nationals