The Virginia Cavaliers and Duke Blue Devils will meet in a game that promises to be one of the most consequential games of Week 12 in the ACC on Saturday. Both teams enter with one conference loss and lofty hopes of making a push toward the league title. Virginia is hoping to have its starting quarterback on the field for this game, while Duke tries to bounce back from a loss to UConn. Here, I break down this matchup in the ACC and give you my Virginia vs Duke prediction.
Our Virginia vs Duke Pick
Pick: Virginia +3.5
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, North Carolina
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
The biggest storyline going into this game is that the quarterback situation for Virginia is in flux. Senior signal‑caller Chandler Morris suffered an injury in last week’s loss to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. He is listed as probable for this contest, but he may not be 100% going into this matchup. Virginia backup Daniel Kaelin filled in, and the Cavaliers offense gained only 203 total yards against Wake Forest.
On defense, the Cavaliers surrender just 21.6 points per contest, which ranks among the better units nationally. The Virginia defense will need to be at or near its best to help make up for the injured Morris.
Duke quarterback Darian Mensah has been outstanding this season. He is completing 69.8% of his passes with 24 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Duke’s offense averages 35.2 points per game and 452.4 total yards per contest, with a passing attack ranked 4th nationally in yards per game. The Blue Devils have had problems on defense this season. They are giving up 29.1 points and 406.4 total yards per game. The question in this game will be whether or not Duke’s offense can cover for the shortcomings of their defense.
Quarterback Play
The quarterback matchup in this game will be decided by whether or not Morris is healthy. Morris and Mensah are pretty evenly matched when Morris is at his best. But if Morris is compromised out there, things could go off the rails in a hurry for the Cavaliers.
Betting Trends
- Duke is 4-5 against the spread going into this weekend.
- Virginia is 6-4 against the spread this season.
- The over is 7-2 in Duke’s games this year.
- Virginia is 4-5-1 on over/unders going into this game.
Virginia vs Duke Model Projection
Score Projection: Virginia 27 – Duke 30
Win Probability: Virginia 43%, Duke 57%
Final Thoughts
If Chandler Morris is able to play this week, Virginia could very well win outright as an underdog against Duke. I will take the points with the Cavaliers here with the expectation that this will be a close game in any case. But we could see this game inch closer to a pick ’em once Morris is confirmed as playing in this important matchup in the ACC.
