The UTSA Roadrunners and South Florida Bulls will do battle in American Athletic Conference play on Thursday night. South Florida (6-2, 3-1 AAC) is looking to bounce back from its first conference loss of the season to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive. UTSA (4-4, 2-2 AAC) is looking to snap a two-game road losing streak and inch closer to bowl eligibility. Before this game kicks off from Tampa, you can find my UTSA vs South Florida prediction below.
Our UTSA vs South Florida Pick
- Pick: Over 67.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UTSA Roadrunners vs South Florida Bulls
- Date & Time: Thursday, November 6, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
Much of South Florida’s success this season is built around efficient execution and disciplined football. The Bulls rank 17th nationally in turnover margin (+6) and convert on 48% of their third-down opportunities. Their red zone offense is hitting at approximately an 89.7% success rate while UTSA’s red zone defense is among the weakest in the FBS (allowing scores on 93.1% of trips). South Florida’s ability to execute in key spots and minimize mistakes gives them a clear advantage in this game.
USF lost a thriller to Memphis in their last game. That was their second loss of the season and their first in conference play. They find themselves in a group of six teams with one loss in AAC play this season. Navy, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, and North Texas are all in that group as well and USF can’t afford any more slip-ups if they want to reach the AAC title game.
UTSA has plenty of offensive firepower, as we saw in their dominant 48-26 home win over the Tulane Green Wave. But the consistency just isn’t there for them. The Roadrunners rank 125th in red zone defense and have issues with penalties (71.6 penalty yards per game). They have struggled on the road and will try to overcome all of that to get a second straight upset win over an opponent from the AAC.
Quarterback Play
UTSA signal-caller Owen McCown has compiled 1,680 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions in 2025. He has shown the ability to lead UTSA to points. The question is whether his defense can help him enough to steal this game on the road. South Florida’s Byrum Brown has thrown for 1,964 yards, 17 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He also leads the Bulls in rushing with 596 yards and eight touchdowns.
Betting Trends
- UTSA is 4-4 against the spread so far this season.
- USF is 5-2-1 against the spread through eight games.
- The Bulls have gone over the total in five of their first eight games.
- UTSA has gone over the total in six of eight games.
UTSA vs South Florida Model Projection
Score Projection: South Florida 38 – UTSA 34
Win Probability: South Florida 75%, UTSA 25%
Final Thoughts
I think we are going to see a high-scoring game between UTSA and USF on Thursday night. These offenses both have a ton of firepower and both defenses have looked vulnerable at times throughout the season. I’ll bet on these teams to put together an exciting matchup that exceeds the total from Tampa, regardless of which team comes out on top.
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