The Texas Tech Red Raiders will host the UCF Knights in an important matchup in the Big 12 on Saturday. Texas Tech enters this game in the driver’s seat in the race to reach the Big 12 championship game. They will try to improve to 7-1 in conference play with a win over a desperate UCF team that is trying to secure two more wins to get to bowl season. Before kickoff from Lubbock, you can find my UCF vs Texas Tech prediction right here.
Our UCF vs Texas Tech Pick
- Pick: Texas Tech −22.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UCF Knights vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, Texas
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Texas Tech enters this contest riding high after a convincing 29-7 home win over a ranked BYU team, establishing itself squarely in the Big 12 title hunt and in contention for a College Football Playoff berth. UCF is stumbling, having lost five of six and in the midst of a seven-game road losing streak. Texas Tech will be expected to take care of business in this game, but the Red Raiders cannot afford to take anything for granted at this stage of the season.
One of the biggest stories going into this contest is Texas Tech’s elite defense. Advanced metrics show the Red Raiders among the nation’s best in opponent EPA per play. Facing UCF’s offense, which ranks near the bottom in adjusted EPA, the Red Raiders have a clear mismatch in their favor going into this game. As long as Texas Tech doesn’t play its worst defensive game of the season this week, they should win comfortably.
Quarterback Play
Texas Tech QB Behren Morton has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards this season with 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions. His steady decision-making gives the Red Raiders a reliable start to any offensive play, which has helped them get off to this hot start.
UCF signal-caller Tayven Jackson has registered 1,470 passing yards, but only five touchdowns against five interceptions. He has spent some time this season dealing with injuries and has had a rough go of things since the start of Big 12 play, where UCF is 1-5 this season.
Betting Trends & H2H
- UCF is 3-5 against the spread going into this contest.
- Texas Tech leads the nation with a 9-1 record against the spread.
- The Knights have gone under the total in 5 of their first 9 games.
- The under is 6-4 in Texas Tech’s games this year.
- In their previous meeting (November 18, 2023), Texas Tech defeated UCF 24-23.
UCF vs Texas Tech Model Projection
Score Projection: Texas Tech 41 – UCF 10
Win Probability: Texas Tech 92% | UCF 8%
Final Thoughts
This game should be one of the biggest mismatches involving a ranked team in college football this weekend. Texas Tech has been elite on both sides of the ball and that should continue here against a UCF team that just hasn’t been able to sustain drives offensively against Big 12 competition. I’ll lay the points with the Red Raiders in this game on their home turf.
