The stage is set for a huge Mountain West Conference matchup when the San Diego State Aztecs travel to face the New Mexico Lobos on Friday. A win would be huge for the hopes for either team as they look to make it to the MWC championship game. Who will come away with the win in Albuquerque here? Continue reading to get my San Diego State vs New Mexico prediction for this important game.
Our San Diego State vs New Mexico Pick
- Pick: San Diego State -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos
- Date & Time: Friday, November 28, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Key Storylines
- San Diego State comes into this game with the 21st-ranked run defense in the nation, while New Mexico enters with the 22nd-ranked run defense. That could force the passing attacks of these teams to step up and there will be questions as to whether or not these teams can throw the ball effectively enough to offset a poor performance on the ground.
- San Diego State enters this game in first place in the Mountain West standings. The Lobos are tied for second place in the conference standings. A win would guarantee San Diego State’s spot in the MWC championship game. A Lobos win would give them a chance to play for the conference title, depending on how other conference games go. The stakes could not be higher here.
- The Lobos have won five straight games and are unbeaten at home this season (5-0). The Aztecs lost only two games all year and both of those losses have come on the road.
Quarterback Play
San Diego State’s signal-caller is Jayden Denegal. He’s completed 58.6% of his passes for 1,649 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. San Diego State’s offense has produced 25.4 points per game this year and will need to produce to beat New mexico here.
New Mexico’s quarterback is Jack Layne. In their most recent win over Air Force, Layne threw for 105 yards and had a rushing touchdown. His passing totals haven’t been all that impressive, but the Lobos have held three of their last four opponents under 20 points and Layne’s job will be to just manage the game above all else.
Betting Trends
- San Diego State is 9-2 against the spread so far this season.
- New Mexico is 6-5 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The under has hit in 8 of San Diego State’s first 11 games.
- The under is 6-5 in games featuring New Mexico this year.
San Diego State vs New Mexico Model Projection
Score Projection: San Diego State 20 – New Mexico 17
Win Probability: San Diego State 55%, New Mexico 45%
Final Thoughts
This is going to be a close game and one that will help decide where the seasons of both teams go. As far as the outcome of this game is concerned, I will lay the point and a half with San Diego State. The Aztecs should shut down the run and make New Mexico one-dimensional on offense. This game will be low-scoring and the Aztecs will punch their ticket to the Mountain West title game.
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