This Saturday’s showdown between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Michigan Wolverines is set to be one of the most important games of the 2025 college football season. Ohio State arrives in Ann Arbor undefeated at 11–0, with arguably the best defensive unit in the nation. Michigan is 9–2 and still has a shot at returning to the College Football Playoff if they can pull off the upset. Before this huge game on rivalry weekend, you will find my Ohio State vs Michigan pick below.
Our Ohio State vs Michigan Pick
Pick: Under 43.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan Wolverines
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025, 12:00 PM Eastern
- Venue: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
- Defensive battle: Ohio State boasts the nation’s top scoring defense at 7.6 points allowed per game and limits opponents to under 4 yards per play. Michigan is also excellent on defense and we could be in for a slugfest between these two teams on Saturday.
- Rivalry history looms large: Michigan enters this game on a four-game win streak over Ohio State. The most recent of those wins for the Wolverines was last season’s 13–10 upset in Columbus. The Wolverines know how to win close, low-scoring games in this setting and Ohio State will try to exact revenge on the Wolverines here.
- Playoff pressure and playoff hopes: For Ohio State, the College Football Playoff is a given at this point. But they are playing for playoff seeding and will try to move closer to locking up the top seed here. For Michigan, this might be their last real shot at a slot in the playoff. Michigan could also get into the Big Ten title game with a win and a loss from Oregon.
Quarterback Play
Ohio State’s offense is powered by quarterback Julian Sayin, who enters the game with an elite 79.4% completion rate, 27 touchdown passes, and 4 interceptions. Even without full certainty on receiver health, Sayin’s accuracy and efficiency make him a huge asset. On the Michigan side, Bryce Underwood has steadily grown more confident down the stretch, managing the offense with a balanced mix of run and pass. But both of these teams are being led by inexperienced quarterbacks and they will try to overcome the pressure of this rivalry matchup.
Betting Trends
- Ohio State is 9–1–1 against the spread this season.
- Michigan is 4-7 against the spread going into rivalry week.
- The over has hit in only 4 of Ohio State’s 11 games this year.
- Michigan has seen 6 out of 11 games hit the over.
Ohio State vs Michigan Model Projection
Score Projection: Ohio State 24 – Michigan 14
Win Probability: Ohio State 63%, Michigan 37%
Final Thoughts
Ohio State is clearly the best defensive team in college football this year. I think they will continue to dominate on that side of the ball, while Michigan will also do a great job of limiting Julian Sayin and the Ohio State passing attack. I’m taking the under in the game of the week in college football.
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