The North Texas Mean Green and Tulane Green Wave will collide in the 2025 American Athletic Conference Championship game on Friday night. North Texas has a record-setting offense and will try to use it to win the AAC against a Tulane team that still has its sights set on the College Football Playoff. Before kickoff from New Orleans, you will find my breakdown of this game below, including my North Texas vs Tulane prediction.
Our North Texas vs Tulane Pick
Pick: North Texas -2.5
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: North Texas Mean Green at Tulane Green Wave
- Date & Time: Friday, December 5, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
- Broadcast: ABC
North Texas vs Tulane Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas –2.5 | North Texas –135 / Tulane +114 | 66.5 |
Key Storylines
- North Texas leads FBS in total offense (510.1 yards per game) and scoring (46.8 points per game). Tulane’s defense has been solid down the stretch and will try to force enough stops and hold the Mean Green under their season average to win this contest. But that is clearly not an easy task.
- Tulane enters on a high, having shut out Charlotte to clinch a return to the AAC title game. Playing in New Orleans will give them an advantage after they lost on the road against Army in last year’s AAC title game.
- North Texas’ run defense ranks among the worst nationally, which could allow Tulane to move the ball on the ground and play keepaway from the North Texas offense. The Mean Green will need to step up on defense if they want to give their offense the best chance to win this matchup.
- There are huge College Football Playoff implications going into this game for Tulane. The Green Wave are ranked 24th in the country going into this week and a win here would help them to be the highest-ranked Group of Five champion to grab a playoff berth.
- Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has been confirmed as the next head coach of Florida. He is going to coach out the rest of this postseason for the Green Wave, but it will still be interesting to see how that news impacts the Green Wave on and off the field this week.
Quarterback Play
North Texas’ offense is orchestrated by Drew Mestemaker, who finished the regular season with 3,835 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and just 4 interceptions. He has an elite weapon in Caleb Hawkins, who has 1,216 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns.
Tulane relies on Jake Retzlaff under center. Retzlaff is a dual-threat quarterback who has thrown for 2,717 yards and 14 touchdowns while adding 14 touchdowns on the ground. While Retzlaff doesn’t put up North Texas-level aerial stats, his ability to keep defenses off-balance could help Tulane win at home.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Tulane is 5-6-1 against the spread this season.
- North Texas is 10-2 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The Mean Green have gone over the total in 9 of their 12 games.
- Tulane has gone under the total in 8 of their 12 outings.
- Tulane is 3-0 all-time against North Texas.
North Texas vs Tulane Model Projection
- Score Projection: North Texas 35 – Tulane 27
- Win Probability: North Texas 56%, Tulane 44%
Final Thoughts
Tulane has home-field advantage and are playing for a playoff berth. But I think that North Texas has the upper hand going into this game. The offense of the Mean Green is just too much for the Green Wave to overcome. Expect the Green Wave to be green with envy after the Mean Green makes the Green Wave see red. I’ll lay the points with North Texas in the AAC title game.
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