The Navy Midshipmen (7‑0, 5‑0 AAC) will travel to face the North Texas Mean Green (7‑1, 3‑1 AAC) in college football action on Saturday. Navy enters with an undefeated record fueled by their ground game, while North Texas brings one of the most explosive offenses in the country into this game. Before kickoff from Denton, continue reading below to get my Navy vs North Texas prediction.
Our Navy vs North Texas Pick
- Pick: North Texas ‑6.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Navy Midshipmen @ North Texas Mean Green
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: DATCU Stadium, Denton, Texas
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
- Offensive juggernauts: North Texas leads the nation in scoring at 46.1 points per game and ranks 6th in total offense with 493 yards per game. Navy is averaging 37.3 points per game and dominates in rushing with 318 yards per game. The Navy running game will be used to try and keep the ball away from the North Texas passing attack.
- Defensive mismatches: Navy’s pass defense has been a glaring weakness this season. The Midshipmen are allowing 256.6 yards per game through the air and rank 117th nationally in that category. North Texas is in the top 20 in the country in pass defense at 170.4 yards allowed per game. But North Texas’ run defense is porous, which invites Navy’s ground game to do its damage.
- Turnover and tempo impacts: North Texas has forced 17 takeaways this season, ranking among the nation’s best. Navy has only four interceptions all year. North Texas plays an uptempo style of offense, while Navy’s triple option is built to chew clock and reduce the number of possessions. The team that best imposes its style could win this game.
Quarterback Play
North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker has already amassed 2,468 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and just four interceptions with a completion percentage of 67.7%. His ability to spread the ball to multiple receivers gives the Mean Green an attack that is hard to stop through the air.
Navy quarterback Blake Horvath has thrown for 1,063 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions, but is primarily a runner. His 814 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns make him a force to be reckoned with both through the air and on the ground.
Betting Trends
- Navy is 2-5 against the spread going into this game.
- North Texas is 6-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Navy is 6-1 to the over through its first seven games.
- North Texas is 6-2 on their over/unders going into Week 10.
Navy vs North Texas Model Projection
Score Projection: North Texas 35 – Navy 28
Win Probability: North Texas 64%, Navy 36%
Final Thoughts
Both teams should have success moving the ball in their own ways. I think that the passing game of North Texas will eventually have the most sustained success. Mestemaker has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football all year long and he should put up enough points to make Navy’s option offense play catch-up. I’ll lay the points with North Texas in what should be a very entertaining game on Saturday afternoon.
