The College Football Committee dare the Minnesota Golden Gophers to prove they were as good as their undefeated record would indicate in the first CFP Poll—and they did. They didn’t just beat the No. 4 team in the country, Penn State; they controlled the game from beginning to end.
So, the committee did the right thing this week and bumped them up from No. 17 to No. 8 in the country. In the process, they raised a lot of questions
How good is Minnesota? Can the Golden Gophers win the Big Ten? Do they have a shot at the playoffs? If so, could they win it all?
According to DraftKings, their odds to do each are as follows:
- Big Ten: +650 (second to Ohio State -670)
- Playoffs: Yes +650; -1115
- National Championships: +10,000
As for the conference, to even make it to the title game, they don’t have to win out. But winning out would help their larger aspirations. At 6-0, they have a two-game lead in their division. So, to not make the game would require a meltdown over the last three games.
Now, Iowa is going to be a tough one this weekend; they are three-point underdogs. Iowa has a strong defense but not an overly productive offense. On paper, the Minnesota offense looks good enough to score some points. However, if the Iowa run defense can hold the Golden Gophers run game in check, Minnesota could be in trouble.
Northwestern will probably not give them much trouble, but Wisconsin and their run game could prove to be challenging.
They could still make the title game if they lose two, but they can’t lose to Wisconsin. But, if they don’t sweep their final three games, it is going to be hard to make a case for them to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
All three games are winnable for them, but beating Iowa and Wisconsin will not be easy. Assuming they do, can we really see them slowing down the Ohio State juggernaut?
No. No, we can’t.
Alabama may be able to hang with Ohio State and LSU can, but there does not appear to be another team in college football that would have an honest shot to beat Ohio State.
Without a win in the Big Ten title game, Minnesota can’t get into the college football playoffs. If they aren’t in the playoffs, well—then they obviously can’t win the national title.
So—how should you bet?
Take them to win against Iowa this weekend, and then again against Northwestern and Wisconsin. But they will not beat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Without that win, the other two will not happen.
While the dream of a massive payout on the chance that they might run the table is nice—save your money. Go to Starbucks, buy a latte, and put your money somewhere you have a reasonable shot at winning (like on Minnesota to win whichever New Year’s Six games they get invited to).